Kazan meeting best opportunity to end stalemate over Karabakh – NY Times
Analyst say a presidential-level meeting scheduled for June 25 in Kazan, Russia is the best opportunity in years to end the stalemate over the Nagorno Karabakh, the New Times reported, referring to the Armenian, Russian and Azerbaijani foreign minister's recent meeting in Moscow.
The momentum has been driven in large part by President Dmitri A. Medvedev, who has invested his time and prestige in resolving the dispute, Ellen Barry of NY times said in her article covering the meeting.
Russia’s goal for the late-June meeting in Kazan, Russia, is to persuade the sides to agree to the set of “basic principles” negotiated more than five years ago, said Aleksandr K Lukashevich, a spokesman for Russia’s Foreign Ministry. He said international mediators — Russia, France and the United States — had clearly expressed the urgency of a deal, the article says.
The foreign ministers reportedly made no statements after the meeting on Saturday, but on Friday, a top aide to Azerbaijan’s president said there were “great expectations” for the talks in Kazan. Statements from Armenia have been more circumspect, though the country’s foreign minister said on Thursday that “it will be possible to achieve the expected progress if Azerbaijan also gives its consent,” news services reported.
The author further quotes Thomas de Waal, a Caucasus specialist at the Carnegie Endowment in Washington, as saying that Passions about Nagorno-Karabakh run so high in Azerbaijan and Armenia that the leaders of both countries run serious risks if it looks like they have ceded ground.
The framework agreement outlined in the basic principles would allow the return of thousands of Azeris displaced during a six-year war over the territory, which ended with a cease-fire in 1994, and Armenia’s president must persuade his people that ethnic Armenians living there will not be in danger, she says.
And because it grants Nagorno Karabakh an interim self-governing status, Azerbaijan’s president will have to show that he is not compromising territorial integrity, she further notes.
“This becomes a dangerous moment in which maybe nothing is happening on the ground, the leaders have stuck their heads over the parapet, and domestic opposition is firing missiles at both of them,” said Mr. de Waal. It is especially important, he said, that any deal be followed by tangible progress.
The former head of the Armenian Center of National and International Studies Richard Giragosian was further quoted as saying that he doubted the Kazan meeting would achieve a breakthrough. Originally, the sides were to be presented a one-page document renouncing the use of force, he said. That goal has been replaced by a more ambitious one — endorsement of the basic principles — which he says is unrealistic.
“The two sides are simply too far apart, and there’s no political will,” he said. “When I was in the US government I worked on the Madrid talks between the Palestinians and the Israelis, and this has become almost as intractable.”
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