Azerbaijan is 'losing' Karabakh – Russian expert
Below is an article by the Russian political scientist Stanislav Tarasov
"Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan's first state visit to Russia is a historic event. First of all, the statements the two leaders made in Moscow are evidence thereof. Following his talks with his Armenian counterpart Serzh Sargsyan, Russian President Dmitri Medvedev stated that the bilateral trade turnover is expected to exceed US $1bn – an increase against not only last year, but also the pre-crisis level. It should be noted that, given the blockade imposed on Armenia because of Nagorno-Karabakh, the figures are just fantastic.
"This factor, however, did not prevent Russian capital investments in Armenia's economy. 'Russian capital investments in the Armenian economy have exceeded US $2.8bn,' said President Dmitri Medvedev. 'We are developing cooperation in such fields as energy, high technologies and transport.' According to him, 'these are good signals.'
"The reports are not at all sensational. The Armenian president stressed that he would like to see his country as a member of the Customs Union and Eurasian Union, even though his country does not border on any of the Customs Union member-states – to say nothing of cooperation within the Collective Security Treaty Organization. However, the situation may prove different tomorrow. Everything depends on the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan re-affirmed Yerevan's commitment to the soonest settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict by only peaceful means, on the basis of principles of international law that constitute a single whole. What does it mean? The UN General Assembly has repeatedly recognized Azerbaijan's right to that territory. Moreover, Armenia has not so far dared to recognize Nagorno-Karabakh.
"But, as the saying goes, times are changing. On the threshold of the Armenian president's visit to Moscow, Armenian FM [Edward Nalbandian] said that 'the Nagorno-Karabakh people must have the same rights to self-determination as any other people under the sun,' that 'the principles and elements proposed by the co-chairs and announced by Presidents Medvedev, Sarkozy and Obama at the three summits in L'Aquila, Muskoka and Deauville confirm this very right' and 'Nagorno-Karabakh's final status must be determined by a free expression of will that would have an international legal force.'
"One more interesting reference: Mr. S. Frederick Starr, Chairman of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, Research Professor at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, says he does not place great hopes on the OSCE Minsk Group. Despite the efforts by the parties concerned with settling the conflict, motives and other factors necessary for progress in the negotiations are lacking.
"We can disagree with Mr. Starr on this point. The Armenian side's motives are obvious: maintaining the status quo until better times and getting the settlement process to go on under the procedure established by European law, which was enforced during the settlement of the Kosovo conflict, rather than on the basis of international law practiced by the UN.
"No progress is possible without major efforts by the United States, says Mr. Starr. Much was expected from President Dmitri Medvede's mediation efforts, but they failed. So it is time for the United States to more actively deal with the South Caucasus problems. The United States should more publicly defense the Caucasian states' right to sovereignty, he adds.
"However, as Mr. Jennifer Walsh, Principal Director for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia, Department of Defense, recently said, the US policy in the region has practically nothing in common with the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. It is aimed at creating a base in the South Caucasus because of the region being geographically close to Iran and the countries that are potential WMD suppliers. However, it is by no means fact that Azerbaijan is such a base. On the other hand, during his recent visit to the region, French President Nicolas Sarkozy outlined the principal vectors of European policy when he called on Turkey to admit the Armenian Genocide 'before the end of this year.' If Turkey continues its genocide denial policy, France will have to amend its laws thereby criminalizing the denial of Armenian massacres, he said.
"True, we can agree that President Dmitri Medvedev made tremendous efforts to untangle the Nagorno-Karabakh problem, without, however, any progress so far. The reason is, however, Moscow's own formula for settling the conflict, without violating the national interests of either Armenia or Azerbaijan. A different scenario – or allowing the Western powers to lead the settlement process – will mean nothing but recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh's independence. In future, Azerbaijan's historians will puzzle over the question: how did Azerbaijan – the most powerful South Caucasus country - happen to lose part of its territory and who is responsible for that? The answer is clear even now, though."
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There is a solid evidence that Azerbaijan has launched a thoroughly planned attack on the NKR
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- 12:41 • 23.10.20 President Armen Sarkissian Meets Emmanuel Macron at Élysée Palace
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- 14:11 • 09.10.20 Turkey openly backs Azerbaijan 'far more aggressively than in the past' - ABC News on Syrian mercenaries fighting in Karabakh
- 15:52 • 08.10.20 Iconic Armenian Church Hit in Azerbaijani Attacks in Nagorno-Karabakh City (photos)
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