The recent incidents on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border resemble pre-battle reconnaissance. However, one has really to be a mad politician to start a war, Vahan Shirkhanyan, Armenia’s former deputy minister of defense, told journalists on Friday.

“The first precondition for unleashing a war is a really stronger army. The second is being confident that the enemy is weaker. The third is being confidence that no international sanctions will be applied against you,” Shirkhanyan said.

One more reason is suggesting “speeding up the settlement on the basis of the Madrid principle” during US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s visit.

The Azeri leaders’ panic accounts for Azerbaijan’s stance. Azerbaijan’s fear is that, from the international community’s point of view, the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process is showing a shift – although a minor one – in favor of Armenia.

The reasons are as follow: the regional strategic programs, namely, US instructions to Azerbaijan for the country to follow them in exchange for Nagorno-Karabakh without war. However, all the “programs” fail one after another.

With respect to Azerbaijan’s confidence in its military superiority, Shirkhanyan said that Azerbaijan can by no means be confident of that. Corruption and perversion in Azerbaijan’s army are among the factors that make it impossible to speak of Azerbaijan’s military might.