‘Gathering of allies’ on the threshold of possible unstable situation in South Caucasus – ITAR-TASS
Russian ITAR-TASS news agency writes that with hours’ difference Russia’s President Vladimir Putin met this week in Moscow with the leaders of Armenia and Abkhazia. In an extended article the agency referred to the relations between Russia and the South Caucasian countries.
“In Serzh Sargsyan’s case it was his first foreign visit after re-election on February 18 while Alexander Ankvab arrived in Moscow to discuss further economic cooperation issues,” the article’s author Ivan Sukhov writes.
Putting aside all the difference, this meeting can be considered ‘gathering of allies’ on the threshold of possible unstable, mixed situation.
Currently three countries in the South Caucasus – Armenia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia – are loyal to Russia. As to Georgia, standing on the threshold of coup, it is not ready to implement radical changes in relations with Russia. While Russia’s relations with Azerbaijan, despite the friendly rhetoric, have not been formed yet with Azerbaijan having closer relations with Georgia in the sphere of infrastructures.
“All the acting figures in contemporary South Caucasian stage, accept Russia’s dominating position. But if to paint the South Caucasus for showing the impact Russia has in these countries and the degree of their loyalty to Moscow, Armenia’s, Abkhazia’s, South Ossetia’s colors would have essentially differed from those of Azerbaijan and Georgia. Looking at this map it becomes clear that these three territories form an irregular triangle – a reliable place to cast anchor,” the author writes said.
For the development of goal it is necessary to establish infrastructural ties that do not exist currently. It would have been possible to restore through Sochi-Sukhumi-Yerevan railway that closed after Georgian-Abkhazian conflict.
The topic of reoperation of the railway has been raised after Georgian Dream coalition came to power in Georgia but the issue will be confronted in certain circles in Georgia and Azerbaijan.
The reoperation would have lifted Armenia’s blockade which has been left out from all the infrastructural projects of Baku, Tbilisi and Ankara.
It would automatically mean that Armenia improves its complicated relations with Azerbaijan and Ankara. At the same time Russia would have restored the economic, political and military influence in the region it has noticeably lost since 1991.
The railway’s reoperation interests in Abkhazia and Armenia though differ. In Armenia’s case it opens new economic opportunities, new status which in its turn would have given an opportunity to discuss the Karabakh conflict and relations with Turkey more confidently. In case of Abkhazia, it is the increase of economic competitiveness. It will export not only Abkhazian mandarins to Russia but Armenia’s and Western Georgia’s fruits.
Though the railway exploitation issue was not discussed during Ankvab’s and Sargsyan’s official visits, Georgia’s Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili has immediately referred to the topic, saying that there is an intention of resuming the work of the railway, but there is no need to hurry not to harm Georgia’s political interests.
Nevertheless, it is obvious that this issue will be the main topic of Armenian-Russian relations during the 2d term of Serzh Sargsyan.
“The issue, not raised by any, sounds this way – either the railway is being restored or Russia will continue losing its positions in the South Caucasus,” the author of the article concludes.
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