Armenian economists rule out ‘Armageddon’ scenario
The floating exchange rate of the US Dollar is not likely to cause an “economic Armageddon” in Armenia, an economist and a lawmaker of the ruling Republican party has said, forecasting even an optimistic scenario.
“If you want to listen to economists’ opinion, then let me say that no ‘Armacedon’ is expected. But neither are we going to face any boom in light of the situation around the globe now. But our economy will see a certain growth, and there will be no collapse,” he told Tert.am, commenting on the past days’ Dollar-Dram fluctuations observed in the currency exchange units of Armenia.
He said he doesn’t think that the trend is likely to have only negative implications. “There is no unequivocal process in economy, so the Dollar valuation has both positive and negative aspects; it will boost our exports and economic growth,” Badeyan explained.
The International Monetary Fund’s resident representative in Armenia, Teresa Daban Sanchez said in recent comments to the media that she shares the Central Bank estimates forecasting the national currency decline’s positive impact on the domestic economy.
Speaking to Tert.am, Gagik Minasyan, the Chairman of the National Assembly’s Standing Committee on Financial-Credit and Budgetary Affairs, expressed his agreement to Prime Minister Hovik Abrahamyan’s recent remark that the increased price for the US Dollar is likely to have a positive impact on the society’s living standards. “What Mr Abrahamyan said describes the situation in a very clear way,” he saod.
After the Republican Party’s executive board meeting on Wednesday, the prime minister said he thinks that the trend may offer advantages to the domestic manufacturers in their export procedures and job creation efforts.
Vahagn Khachatryan, an economist affiliated with the opposition Armenian National Congress party, says he thinks that Armenia’s economy is now in a deep state of recession. “The authorities’ attitude is not unfortunately adequate, and they never clarify what is actually happening. Instead of avoiding speaking about that we should rather highlight the real situation in the economy, pointing out to the problems and taking steps to mitigate these conditions,” he told our correspondent.
Considering Armenia’s economic dependence on Russia essentially big, the economist said he expects the current panic in the country to also influence Armenia.
He said he finds the Government’s tools and efforts in that direction absolutely unjustified. “What we see in the tax-collection sector today is one of the best ways to undermine and eventually crush the economy,” he noted.
As the best solution, he proposed suspending the government’s tax reforms for a minimum period of three years and granting maximum privileges to small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to make their job creation plans realistic.
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