Armenian politicians predict frontline tension in 2015
Politicians from Armenia and an expert from Azerbaijan on Monday arrived at a unanimous conclusion that the year 2015 will see increased tension across the Armenian-Azerbaijani border and the Nagorno-Karabakh Line of Contact.
At a debate held jointly by the Institute of War and Peace Reporting (IWPR) and Media Center, Tevan Poghosyan of the opposition Heritage party described the year, marking the Genocide centenary, as very specific for Armenia, noting that Azerbaijan will offer its best support to Turkey (traditionally considered its elder brother) by inciting sabotage against Armenian-protected frontline positions.
“[Azerbaijani President Ilham] Aliyev issues orders for such subversive attacks along the Line of Contact … And the deaths - whether 100, 200 or 1,000 - do not matter at all,” he said.
Poghosyan cited the falling prices of oil as a domestic economic factor pushing the country to subversive attacks in an effort maintain its influence in the South Caucasus.
Shahin Rzaev, a Baku-based expert who joined the debate via Skype, attributed the tensions to the parliamentary elections set to be held in the country this autumn.
“There is zero likelihood for a Maidan scenario here; the main struggle is inside the government. No negotiations are expected until autumn, whereas increased tension is, because they have to justify all that and [divert] the society,” he explained.
Noting that Armenia's economy too, is face of challenges, the Azerbaijani expert said he thinks that the Armenian side may also need tools to divert the society’s attention from many problems.
Commenting on the country’s relations with Turkey, Rzaev noted that coolness among Turkic-speaking nations was observed only in the “football diplomacy” period (when the Armenian leader invited then-President Abdullah Gul to Yerevan in 2008 to watch a football match between the countries' national teams).
Addressing the topic, Richard Giragosyan, the director of the Yerevan-based Regional Studies Center, said he finds the Armenian defense positions’ potential powerful enough to suppress Azerbaijan despite that country’s large military budget.
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