Azerbaijan needs consensus to unleash war against Armenia – Manvel Sargsyan
In an interview with Tert.am, Manvel Sargsyan, Director of the Armenian Center for National and International Studies (ACNIS), said that Turkey is not now able to support Azerbaijan as it did before.
During his visit to Baku, Russian FM Sergey Lavrov invited Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to the Russia Arms Expo exhibition, which implies Russia’s expectations about a new arms deal with Azerbaijan.
In commenting on the Russian FM’s invitation, Mr Sargsyan said:
“Nothing new. Russia is seeking close ties with Azerbaijan for it to remain in its camp. To achieve its aim, Russia has hardly anything to offer Azerbaijan except for arms. I can clearly see it, and that visit is a follow-up. Russia is seeking to alienate Azerbaijan from Turkey. That is, it is trying to ‘shape’ Azerbaijan in its own way because Azerbaijan has its relations with the West poisoned on different occasions.
As regards Russia’ arguments that, despite selling arms, it knows “all the buttons to press,” Mr Sargsyan said:
“It is a tale. An issue has repeatedly been raised of how Armenia’s strategic ally can sell arms to its enemy. I cannot rule out Russia has political influence on Azerbaijan in this matter.”
It is not only a matter of sale. Azerbaijan cannot use arms without Russia’s political decisions. For example, last August Azerbaijan could not use the weapons on the front.
It is not a problem of instructions. Rather, it is a problem of deciding in favor of resuming hostilities. It is not only up to Azerbaijan to decide. It is a most complicated issue, with NATO member-state Turkey on the one hand, and Russia, on the other hand.
Such a serious step requires a consensus. Russia is not the only decision-maker. Complicated global relations make it hardly possible. But Azerbaijan does not care about it as it is always ready for conflicts.
In commenting on other expert opinions that the Iran-G6 agreement has played into Russia’s hands in the context of torpedoing Iran-related projects by provoking a war in the South Caucasus, Mr Sargsyan said that such opinions may be voiced.
“Russia is concerned over Iran’s changing role in international relations. It is a new situation Turkey and Azerbaijan are concerned over. Each of them is seeking to take advantage of the developments. But I personally can hardly say it will be done by unleashing war.”
As to the Russian FM’s statement that Russia, under the leadership the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairing countries, is seeking to reduce to a common denominator and hopes for progress, Mr Sargsyan said he does not see anything important in that statement.
“We have for years made sure that [such statements] are not of essential importance. For example, the new situation in Turkey. It stated that as long as it supports Azerbaijan nothing can pose a threat to its borders. They are making such statements to influence processes. However, in the context of latest developments in the region – Turkey-Syria problems and the Islamic state – they will have to make new statements because no changes have taken place for years.”
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