Azerbaijan’s policy of provocation test for international community – Russian analyst
The acts of sabotage which Azerbaijan repeatedly incites against Armenia’s border communities and the Nagorno-Karabakh frontline are an attempt to test the international community’s attitude and reaction, according to Alexander Skakov, a Russian political analyst.
“Azerbaijan is making an attempt to prove to everybody – and first of all to itself – that Armenia does not have resources to counteract to Baku’s provocations, with Russia failing to make any intervention or initiate anything as a security guarantor,” he said in an interview with Tert.am.
The expert said he doesn’t believe in a war scenario prompted by Azerbaijan. “I don’t think Azerbaijan is ready to start serious military operations at the moment, as it does not have guarantees that no other state or organization will act as an intervening party. A war may break out regardless of Baku’s desire,” he noted.
Asked whether he doesn’t think that the situation is now essentially different from what it was several years ago (with Azerbaijan targeting Armenian civilians and opening fire from weaponry that wasn’t used ever since signing the 1994 ceasefire), the expert replied, “It isn’t the first time that civilians are reported killed. As to the increasing number of the weapons purchased and their qualitative criteria, that is a fact. It also falls within the logic of the Azerbaijani policies. They make a step forward to see the reaction by the international community and the OSCE Minsk Group. Azerbaijan is yet another time undertaking steps to test possible attitudes.”
Skakov said he finds the international community’s somewhat passive stance absolutely logical and unsurprising. “Armenia and Azerbaijan are not under the international community’s spotlight. The world is not focused on this region, as they now have more actual issues to deal with,” he said, considering the developments in Syria, Iran, Ukraine and Afghanistan more urgent matters for leading world countries and international organizations.
As for the Collective Security Treaty Organization’s (CSTO) inaction, the expert said he doesn’t think that Armenia is of much interest to that structure. “The CSTO does not much care about that. We have to focus on Russia which is practically interested in ruling out a war in the South Caucasus. For Kazakhstan which is a CSTO member, Azerbaijan is clearly more acceptable than Armenia, and Belarus too, has more interests with Azerbaijan. And for Kyrgyzstan, for example, that issue is not actual at all. So I would not consider reliance on the CSTO a serious factor,” he said, calling for a stronger reliance with Russia.
Skakov said he finds that Russia is obliged act as a security guarantor for Armenia.
Asked to what extent such it would be realistic to rely on such a guarantor which sells weapons to Azerbaijan, the expert agreed that the deal is not acceptable. “Yes, I find the weapons’ sale wrong, and I am hopeful that practice will not be repeated in the near future. I know that the arguments that it is just a business interest are not convincing. I think politics should be superior to business interests. But politics does not always succeed in making one of the conflicting sides dependent through the sale of weapons,” he added.
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