Russia-Turkey strain likely to escalate into war – Armenian analyst
The Russian authorities’ proposal to denounce the 1921 friendship treaty with Turkey will mark fresh tensions between the two countries, threatening a negative scenario for Armenia, according to Aghasi Yenokyan, Director of the Armenian Center for Political and International Studies.
Speaking to Tert.am, the expert said the document, which has practically lost its effect long ago, does not imply any legal burden for either of the signatories. He described the move as just a propaganda tool aimed to exacerbate the tension even further. In his words, the deteriorated relations may eventually escalate into a war. “I consider it absolutely likely given that the leaders in both countries are primarily concerned about their own rating rather that ther countries’ interests. Their key task being to avoid losing their image, none of them seems to be willing to back away.”
Yenokyan said he thinks that a war scenario is in the interests of both the Turkish and the Russian presidents as the simplest way to overcome the existing tension. “In case of a war, Turkey will receive NATO’s backing, so Russia’s defeat would be inevitable.”
Commenting on the impact on Armenia, Yenokyan added. “Because of the Russian military base [stationed in Armenia’s second largest city Gyumri], Turkey treats the Armenia-Turkey border as a Russian border, especially now that Armenia seems to be taking actually no step to find a way out of that tension and explain to Turkey that it is the border of Armenia, not Russia.”
To redirect Turkey’s possible reaction from Armenia to Russia, the expert highlighted the need of demonstrating to the country that Russia’s steps are absolutely unrelated to Armenia.
Asked about possible advantages for the country, Yenokyan replied, “In case of a passive attitude, both the normalization and the deterioration of the Russia-Turkey relations are bad for Armenia.”
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