Initiative to denounce Russian-Turkish treaty of 1921 blackmail - David Shahnazaryan

In an interview with Tert.am, David Shahnazaryan, Senior Analyst at the Regional Studies Center, said that Russian President Vladimir Putin is most unlikely to announce abrogation of a Russian-Turkish treaty signed in 1921.

According to him, by checking the combat readiness of the Southern Command of the Russian Armed Forces and by undertaking an initiative to denounce the Treaty, Russia is trying to talk to Ankara by means of blackmail and propaganda, one of the reasons is Putin’s unwillingness to meet with Erdogan.

Mr Shahnazaryan, we received two pieces of news concerning Armenia from Russia yesterday. First, the communist members of the Russian State Duma addressed a letter to President Vladimir Putin, calling on him to denounce the Russian-Turkish treaty of 1921. Secondly, by the Russian president’s order, the Southern Command stated unexpected military exercises to check the combat readiness of the military units, including the military base in Gyumri, Armenia. Should Russia withdraw from the treaty, would Armenia find itself entangled in the conflict of Russian and Turkish interests?

I would even say three pieces of news. First, Erdogan is seeking a meeting of a telephone conversation with the Russian president, but the Kremlin denied him. Secondly, the letter addressed to the president by the communist members of the Russian State Duma calling for denunciation of the Russian-Turkish treaty of 1921. Under the treaty, Turkey established control over Kars, Surmali and Mount Ararat. Interestingly, the initiative was proposed by communists, who were actually authors and implementers of that treaty. Of course, that caused great excitement in Russia’s political elite. Specifically, ‘A Just Russia’ party supported the initiative. At the same time, in southern command of the Russian armed forces began expected checks of combat readiness in the military units, including military base 102. I think the three events are links in one chain. I do not think Putin is prepared for a meeting with Erdogan because the Turkish president will produce irrefutable facts of Russian war planes violating Turkey’s air space on numerous occasions. As regards the two other facts, I am sure these are just propaganda steps by Russia, which are not only propaganda but also blackmail against Ankara, and even against the international community.

In fact, Russia will not denounce the Russian-Turkish treaty of 1921. The Kremlin has found itself in a situation it has never been before: the economy is facing a collapse, economic and political isolation, numerous accusations against high-ranking Russian officials by the international community. And Moscow is now seeking to create new problems with the purpose of getting new concessions from the West. Specifically, Moscow’s steps show its readiness to transfer its confrontation with Ankara to the South Caucasus.

At the same time, it is a message to the international community suggesting Russia can be more unpredictable that the West believes it can be. In fact, well aware of how grave the situation is, is managing the growing Russian-Turkish tensions.

Russia will not denounce the Russian-Turkish treaty of 1921, because it would be a direct blow on its interests. By way of illustration, according to the Russian-Turkish treaty of 1921, Russia is also a guarantor of the status of Nakhijevan. I do not think Russia’s leadership will make such a step. Otherwise, the Russian leadership’s activities would be entirely irrational. A cause of concern is also frequent visits Russian authorities’ representatives are paying to Armenia, including ones with Armenian names. Their aim is to cause a new wave of anti-Turkish sentiments in Russia’s interests.

That is, just as it repeatedly happed throughout history, Russia is seeking to use Armenia as a small coin in its confrontation with Turkey. Neither our authorities nor our society should be enthusiastic about it in any way. We are in a rather grave situation and we must clearly understand that the interest of Armenia and Russia are becoming more and more conflicting. In this situation Armenia has to make certain steps, first of all out of its state interests.