Expanded OSCE monitoring forces will actually act as peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh – Modest Kolerov
In an interview with Tert.am, Russia-based expert Modest Kolerov commented on the results of an Armenian-Azerbaijani meeting in Vienna, Austria, spoke of Azerbaijan’s possible steps.
As regards a possible involvement of more OSCE observers on the line of contact, Mr Kolrerov believes it could turn them into peacemakers.
Elaborating on the Armenian-Azerbaijani presidential meeting in Vienna, he said:
“I think it was Yerevan’s tactical victory, which, however, may turn into an illusion if Azerbaijan, according to its habit, dishonors its own statements on the conflict.”
Commenting on Armenian experts’ opinion that welcome the Vienna meeting, Mr Kolerov said:
“The document signed at the meeting suggests that the conflict has been frozen for a certain period. The question is how long it will remain frozen. No doubt, Azerbaijan’s consent to the expansion of the existing Office of the Personal Representative of the OSCE Chairperson in Office and to installation of devices to record ceasefire violations was actually accepting some of Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan’s proposals. It will raise the level of the international community’s involvement in the conflict and monitoring of the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh. It means the level of participation of Nagorno-Karabakh in the negotiations as a conflicting party will mechanically be raised.
“I say again, I am only speaking of a frozen conflict now. This is the reason why the main question is: how long will the conflict remain frozen? No matter how many times Azerbaijan has put its signature to the phrase saying it objects to a military settlement of the conflict, the events in early April prove it have never stopped Azerbaijan. Therefore, the Armenian sides must be well aware of the particular period the conflict will remain frozen and of the moment Azerbaijan may try to resume hostilities.”
The Armenian sides should build up the minor progress and raise the status of Nagorno-Karabakh to that of negotiator. It has to be done before the next Armenian-Azerbaijani presidential meeting.
“Relevant work needs to be done with international organizations as well, for political preparations before Azerbaijan launches its next attack, for Nagorno-Karabakh to be stronger by that time. This period should be used for military preparations.”
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev seemed to have changed his tone, which was in contrast to his recent rhetoric.
“We should differentiate between what Aliyev says to his own country and what he says to the rest of the world. Of course, he changed his tone because Azerbaijan failed to gain victory in the April war. And this is the major factor. Yes, large-scale fighting with great losses did take place, but Azerbaijan came to realizes it would not b able to quickly accomplish its military tasks.”
As to whether it will keep Azerbaijan from launching a new war, Mr Kolerov said:
“If the projects I have mentioned are implemented, the will keep Azerbaijan from doing it. If the OSCE monitoring forces are serious expanded, it will mean that the observers will actually act as peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh. And the very presence of those unarmed peacekeepers will defend the frontline from Azerbaijan’s attacks. It was not Nagorno-Karabakh that launched the hostilities in April nor is it going to attack. So any expansion of the OSCE monitoring mission is against Azerbaijan’s interest.”
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