No joint expectations after Vienna talks – Russian expert
In an interview with Tert.am, a Russian defense and security expert shared his comments on the recent heated tensions over Nagorno-Karabakh and the subsequently held Armenian-Azerbaijani presidential meeting in Vienna.
According to Anatoly Trofimchuk, Azerbaijan’s expectation after the four-day war is the phasal return of lands, with Armenia being hopeful to receive at least security guarantees.
What is your evaluation of the developments over Nagorno-Karabakh? Did the meeting between the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents satisfy the political expectations?
The interest about the Vienna meeting was the fact of the meeting per se, as it was the first ever after the April clashes; and also because it wasn’t initially clear whether or not Armenia’s leadership would take such a step at all. But it did.
All in all, the political expectations haven’t been met to date, because there isn’t absolutely any joint expectation as such. What Azerbaijan expects after the April events is a process that will see a phasal return of lands, whereas Armenia is hopeful to receive reliable security guarantees. As for the key observers - Russia and the United States - they too, pursue different objectives in the conflict settlement process. More precisely, those are now war settlement objectives.
A normal course of negotiations would be possible in case the dividing line between Armenia and Azerbaijan were the same as it was before April 1. But the situation in the conflict zone and the region is absolutely different now, so we need analysis to predict the developments. In a nutshell, the Vienna meeting was formal, as it fell short to make the matters sufficiently clear.
Following the two presidents’ meeting, agreements were reached to deploy investigation mechanisms, conduct a monitoring and expand the office of the personal representative of the OSCE chairperson-in-office. Do you see a desire or a political willingness to bring the agreements to life?
The OSCE Minsk Group, including Russia, has undertaken serious commitments. Azerbaijan’s somewhat wry posture is especially worth consideration at this point. In the run-up to the upcoming meeting in April, the [OSCE] Minsk Group should single out the key accentuations on the outcome of the April clashes to identify the side responsible for the escalations, and the losses suffered. Given that the Minsk Group is not likely to be maximum clear and objective, the developments will halt – this time at a point not beneficial to Azerbaijan. That may raise the urgency of reshaping the Minsk Group format, as well as putting in place new mechanisms to settle the conflict. Washington, by the way, is ready to work towards this to deepen its role in the process.
A monitoring along the Line of Contact is actually possible to conduct, but the over 1,000 surveillance cameras will not change the most important thing – the lands demanded from Armenia. Neither will those cameras give us any clue to determine which the side was actually proactive. All this has been designed for protraction. Azerbaijan hoped the tactics of clashes would be to its advantage, securing a rapid victory, but no tactics is being elaborated actually.
The anti-Russian sentiments have been increasing in Armenia after the four-day war. There are complaints, particularly, that Russia keeps selling weapons to Azerbaijan and that the batch of the Russian weapons’ supply for Armenia won’t reach the intended destination. Is Russia concerned over that?
The recent developments over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict incite negative sentiments, with most people in Armenia thinking “Russia failed to defend us.” This shouldn’t be overlooked. Economically too, the situation remains the same. Armenia has for over a year been a member of the Eurasian Economic Union, but that bloc’s advantages aren’t perceptible to its citizens. This isn’t absolutely good. So we need to work towards this.
Summing up the developments over Nagorno-Karabakh, do you think a breakthrough is possible in the near future?
Naturally, it isn’t. With the conflict not having been resolved in the past 22 years, it isn’t really easy to predict that it will have a successful outcome in the 22 days to come. My general opinion is that it will not be resolved at all, given that the USSR has long collapsed. The expected scenario is very hazardous and appalling. Azerbaijan and Armenia will be crucially set against each other – if, of course, no proper solutions are found. They do exist practically, but I have no authority to voice them, because I am not a member of the Minsk Group.
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