Monitoring could reduce possibility of escalation on Line of Contact – Boris Navasardyan
Chairman of the Yerevan Press Club Boris Navasardyan believes that monitoring of would reduce the risk of escalation on the Line of Contact and upset Russia’s plans.
Mr Navasardyan, the US Department of State has reported that, following the Armenian-Azerbaijani presidential meeting in Vienna, two US officials told press briefings that it is Russia that is actually seeking to delay the negotiations.
I think Russia is now concerned over both the bilateral relations and the process itself as the west can take over the initiative from Russia. And Russian media reports confirm it.
The PACE rapporteurs for Armenia proposed that the OSCE Minsk Group investigate the atrocities and war crimes committed during the four-day hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh. How could it help us?
If we speak of monitoring mechanisms, it will obviously upset Russia’s plans as it is only western states that can technically install the mechanisms and, therefore, will exercise control. Secondly, Russia is in control of the conflict, with a hidden motive to escalate it at any moment, thereby mediating it or building up its potential as a peacemaker. In fact, monitoring will upset attempts to escalate the situation on the Line of Contact, which is an important instrument at Russia’s disposal – and it can lose this instrument. Russia is actually concerned over it and has to start new game.
Armenia would benefit from an investigation as I could get more serious security guarantees. The risks involve inefficient diplomacy, which could encourage Azerbaijan to make demands and that could hardly be rejected. We must get the mechanisms applied without any preconditions because, if both the conflicting parties are for a peaceful settlement, they are supposed to be interested in it. And if this round of the negotiations results in this one decision, it will prove to be our minor diplomatic victory.
What has changed after the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents’ meeting in Vienna? Is there any confidence about a negotiated settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?
Whatever the case, Vienna was a chance to keep the process going and try to find a certain solution. But the likelihood of an effective process is very low – given especially the different objectives pursued by the parties. A key objective for Armenia should be the implementation of monitoring mechanisms, with Azerbaijan seeking to capture territories. They could, of course, be compatible, but I don’t think it would be a promising scenario for Armenia. Armenia doesn’t seem to be ready for that.
So do you expect the solution to remain suspended?
Unless we have strong arguments to insist on the implementation of monitoring mechanisms [it will]. All the rest is to be discussed in future. What we need to understand is the stakeholders’ intentions behind joining this process; that isn’t clear for now. So we need only to settle the minor problem at the moment without further expansion. That’s really a very complicated task, which we must be able to resolve.
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