Armenian, Azerbaijani FMs' meeting in Hamburg depends on external forces’ decision – expert
Political scientist Alexander Kananyan believes that the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process should be continued, but no serious expectations about it should be held.
In an interview with Tert.am, Mr Kananyan spoke of a possible meeting between the Armenian and Azerbaijani FMs on the sidelines of a meeting between the foreign ministers of the OSCE member-states, in Hamburg, Germany, on December 8-9.
“Negotiations with shrewd diplomacy can only ensure current interests and avert undesirable developments as part of a surprise scenario,” he said.
According to the Azerbaijani foreign office, the Azerbaijani and French foreign ministers recently discussed the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process and Elmar Mammadyarov accepted his French counterpart’s proposal for participating in a meeting of foreign ministers in a 2+3 format. Armenian FM Edward Nalbandian recently made a statement on a possible meeting in Hamburg.
Official Baku has to decide on whether it is willing to continue the negotiations in the current format as, on the one hand, Azerbaijan states its willingness to take part in the meetings, but, on the other hand, it is objecting to the co-chairs’ proposals. Mere participation is nothing but imitation, Mr Nalbandian said.
In this context, Mr Kananyan says that such a meeting will take place in any case, and Armenia will not be able to refuse, if the centers of power decide they need this “formal” meeting.
“Before resuming negotiations, we should remember recent ceasefire violations, including shelling. We should retaliate massively against them,” Mr Kananyan said.
With respect to more active participation of France, as OSCE Minsk Group co-chair, in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process, he said:
“Regrettably, France’s latest initiative will prove only formal or declarative because France itself, especially after the terrorist attacks, needs to intensify its foreign policy and show it plays its role in various areas bordering on Europe and has interests. But France has not the potential or exclusive means that would make its interference essential and effective.”
In fact, France is not seeking a more active role in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. Rather, France has to show a political bid to Europe and its own people, and it is actually doing so.
France’s active involvement is positive in that it could involve more centers of power in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process.
“The more actors with their interests and influence are involved the more room for actions and time for is available to postpone solutions unacceptable to Armenia,” Mr Kananyan said.
He does not hold any serious expectations about France’s “formal” activity.
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