Trump administration unlikely to recognize Genocide – Richard Giragosian

11:35 • 21.04.17



In an interview with Tert.am, Director of the Regional Studies Center Richard Giragosian shared his expectations of regional developments in the run-up to the Genocide anniversary and the possible use by US President Donald Trump of the right legal wording in his April 24 address.



Mr Giragosian, with April 24 drawing near, Armenians are again beset with the question whether or  not [President] Trump will say “genocide” after all. Most think he will not, as he never spoke about that, and also because [US ] has [common] interests with Turkey. Certain analysts, however, find that Trump is an unpredictable [political] figure who may be expected to do absolutely anything, and even use ‘genocide’.


It is very unlikely that the Trump Administration will recognize the Armenian Genocide on 24 April. While Washington is likely to keep the same wording as previous White House statements, there are two factors suggesting that there will be no change in US policy. First, President Trump is planning a new more friendly strategy to engage Turkey in the fight against ISIS and over operations in Syria. This is also evident in Trump’s very quick message of “congratulations” to President Erdogan, despite even what the State Department saw as a flawed and tainted referendum. A second factor is, of course, Trump’s past business ties to Turkey, which seems to determine his policy preferences, in a negative way ad to the detriment of US interests.


The Armenian organizations in the United States were earlier reported to be trying to establish ties with Trump and his administration, but to the best of our knowledge, they haven’t yet succeeded in their efforts. What reasons do you think prevent them from doing that, and what are your predictions?


I have no idea. I have been living in Armenia for over 10 years, and I do not know what is going on in the Diaspora.


The US-Russia relations have entered a new phase of crisis; moreover, the Russian TV channels seem to be heralding the Third World War. With this in mind, to what extent do you think that [first President Levon] Ter-Petrosyan was realistic in his analysis that Russia has given the west it “Blessing” to settle the [Nagorno-]Karabakh conflict, with only a couple of issues remaining unsettled.


Of the many shortcomings in the former president’s analysis, his most serious error is to place too much hope and far too much power in the assumption that Russia will unilaterally determine the agenda in the region. Even for Putin, he has to be more careful, and the situation is not as basic as Ter Petrosyan seems to believe.


With Turkey’s new Constitution giving an increasing power to Islam, what hazards do you see for Armenia as a neighbor?


President Erdogan will still struggle to manage a growing set of challenges. With an economy in crisis, as unemployment is at a seven-year high, tourism has sagged, and the currency has weakened by one-fifth in less than a year, Erdogan also faces a triad of threats, comprised of a mounting internal military campaign against the Kurds, a difficult cross-border military intervention in Syria, and an ever-present terrorist threat. And with the largest Syrian refugee population in the world, the outlook for the Turkish leader, no matter how powerful, remains as discouraging as it is daunting.


At a meeting with his Azerbaijani counterpart, Iran’s minister of defense expressed hope that the Karabakh issue will be resolved without a third power’s intervention. Do you think it was a hint warning Turkey against intervention, or did he mean a third country?  

Clearly, Iran is pressing to exclude both Turkey and Russia from more active engagement in this region. And despite this message, Iran is not ready to fully or forcefully return as a regional player powerful enough to stand against either Moscow or Ankara, however.


What expectations do you think we should have from the Tsarukyan Alliance [the second majority party elected to parliament]. Is it likely to declare itself an opposition political force, and if so, will it be a radical opposition or just try to offer “an alternative” as did its predecessor [the Prosperous Armenia party].


It is still too soon to say, but there is an interesting scenario, whereby the 30-seat Tsarukyan Alliance is pressured and persuaded to enter into a new “national unity” coalition. Under both options, the Republican Party would still retain the primary position. And even based on the second option, the inherent vulnerability of Gagik Tsarukyan, the oligarch leader of the alliance whose own sources of wealth could always be justifiably used by the state as grounds for a tax audit or criminal investigation, grants the Republicans important leverage. For that reason, it is also highly unlikely that the Tsarukyan Alliance would continue to pose as an opposition force, especially as the political risks for its leader would be too high to forego the obvious benefits of returning to government.

 

Anush Dashtents





Загрузка...

LATEST NEWSAll Today news

17:01 • 21/02

France’s Macron plans tighter asylum rules

16:49 • 21/02

Serena Williams shares life-threatening experience of giving birth

16:19 • 21/02

Armenian parliament speaker, Brazilian ambassador discuss regional peace

15:44 • 21/02

Japanese farmers invent edible banana skin

15:21 • 21/02

Syria's Ghouta residents 'wait to die' amid heavy bombing

13:32 • 21/02

Venezuela says launch of cryptocurrency raised $735 million

13:20 • 21/02

Sheer madness! Angela Sarafyan's amazingly bold appearance at Esquire Hollywood bash

13:05 • 21/02

Christopher Nolan says he 'won’t be the man' to direct the next James Bond movie

12:05 • 21/02

France reaffirms support to Karabakh peace

11:40 • 21/02

Erdogan: Pro-regime groups in Afrin issue ‘closed’

11:23 • 21/02

North Korea backed out of secret meeting with Pence, says US

10:53 • 21/02

Armenian authorities 'aware of shadow businesses' - economist  

10:15 • 21/02

Trump pushes for ban on gun 'bump stocks'

09:52 • 21/02

Hraparak: Republican, opposition MPs to attend EU-Armenia summit in Berlin

09:15 • 21/02

Iranian Police Arrest 300 rioters in capital after five security forces killed

17:59 • 20/02

Edward Nalbandian to conduct official visit to Burssels

17:41 • 20/02

Seaside Startup Summit India.Goa gains governmental support  

17:12 • 20/02

Armenia creating 'institute of autocratic prime minister’ – human rights advocate  

16:30 • 20/02

KFC shuts down more stores amid chicken delivery fiasco

16:10 • 20/02

Canada’s Trudeau and family pass time by visiting Gandhi’s home while wearing traditional Indian dress as Modi ‘snubs’ him on official visit

15:55 • 20/02

Jennifer Lawrence is not taking a year off from acting

15:45 • 20/02

Shocking moment woman balances precariously on a tiny ledge five floors above ground to clean outside apartment windows

15:37 • 20/02

Mahmoud Abbas to urge alternative to US as peace mediator in UN speech

15:28 • 20/02

Nagorno-Karabakh developing steadily for 30 years after shaking off Azerbaijani yoke – Serzh Sargsyan

15:09 • 20/02

President Sargsyan’s attendance at the Munich Security Conference ‘had strategic significance’ – Richard Giragosian

14:48 • 20/02

NASA’s Opportunity rover surpasses 5,000 Martian days on the Red Planet

14:41 • 20/02

Last British-Armenian hotel sold in Calcutta

14:31 • 20/02

Canadian couple breaks short dance record in Pyeongchang

14:14 • 20/02

Armenia launching milk quality improvement project  

13:16 • 20/02

At least 17 killed in Mozambique capital as pile of garbage collapses

12:31 • 20/02

‘I'm still punching!' Sylvester Stallone dismisses bizarre hoax claiming he has died of cancer

12:18 • 20/02

Bitcoin breaks through $11,000 for the first time since January  

12:06 • 20/02

European Parliament to mark 30th anniversary of Nagorno-Karabakh movement in special event

11:51 • 20/02

European Parliamentarians ask Federica Mogherini why EU officials do not visit Nagorno-Karabakh

11:38 • 20/02

Three Iranian police killed in clashes with Sufi protesters

11:29 • 20/02

Turkish, Russian, Iranian presidents to meet in Turkey in April

11:08 • 20/02

Serj Tankian, Creative Armenia announce ‘7 Notes Music Challenge’ winners

10:59 • 20/02

Hraparak: Knesset speaker’s visit to Armenia ‘still questionable’

10:41 • 20/02

Football: Chelsea's Hazard dismisses comparisons to Messi and Ronaldo

10:28 • 20/02

Ocean plastic tide 'violates international law'

10:00 • 20/02

US students stage White House protest as Trump gives nod to background bill

09:31 • 20/02

Volcano Mount Sinabung  erupts in Indonesia

09:13 • 20/02

Saudi Arabia set to build 16 nuclear reactors with Russian help

15:23 • 19/02

Nagorno-Karabakh expands international cooperation

13:29 • 19/02

Armenian marksman qualifies for youth Olympics

12:55 • 19/02

Turkey, US to form a three-way mechanism to tackle festering bilateral issues

12:06 • 19/02

ISIL claims responsibility for Russian church shooting in which five women were killed

11:51 • 19/02

National Security Service chief hosts Russian counterpart to discuss cooperation

10:59 • 19/02

Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri enjoys a triumphant night at the BAFTAs as it becomes the big winner of the night with five prizes  

10:29 • 19/02

Asia shares extend global recovery, volatility subsides  

10:08 • 19/02

Winter Olympics 2018: Russian suspected of failed doping test

09:28 • 19/02

Mystery as shark falls from sky and lands in man’s back garden in Kent

09:14 • 19/02

Canada prime minister starts visit to India with Taj Mahal trip  

15:10 • 17/02

International community 'sees our campaign for justice' – Artsakh lawmaker  

14:51 • 17/02

Turkey, Germany pledge closer dialogue

14:42 • 17/02

Aravot: Genocide should not be underlying issue behind Armenian-Israeli relations

14:16 • 17/02

Japanese figure skater earns 1,000th Winter Olympics gold medal

14:06 • 17/02

Aliyev's belligerent rhetoric 'sign of solidarity with Turkey' – former defense minister

13:32 • 17/02

Nagorno-Karabakh reports 250 Azerbaijani ceasefire violations

13:13 • 17/02

Vic Darchinyan: I want to fight with Russian champion in Armenia 'before ending my career'

10:33 • 17/02

FBI under fire over Florida school shooting

09:12 • 17/02

Strong quake hits Mexico

17:53 • 16/02

Armenian, Russian emergency ministers discuss cooperation projects

16:51 • 16/02

Armenia-Belarus air transport cooperation discussed in Yerevan  

16:09 • 16/02

Armenian parliament rejects amendments to Tax Code

15:47 • 16/02

Arsenal boss Wenger confident of seeing out contract

15:30 • 16/02

Terrorist suicide bomber detained in Kyrgyzstan

14:53 • 16/02

18-year-old student saves toddler who jumped on tracks at Milan metro

14:39 • 16/02

US official ‘would be surprised' if Russia doesn't face more sanctions

14:31 • 16/02

iOS bug that displays an Indian character can crash iPhones and disable access to iMessages and WhatsApp

14:10 • 16/02

 NATO urges Turkey, Greece to ease tensions

13:15 • 16/02

Aravot: Supoerpowers' tolerance pushes Aliyev to further agression - politician

12:27 • 16/02

Major-General Tigran Parvanyan appointed commander of Russian-Armenian military contingent

11:52 • 16/02

Dutch parliament recognizes Armenian Genocide

11:28 • 16/02

Florida gunman who killed 17 in school shooting suffers from autism

10:50 • 16/02

Russian low-cost airline to launch flights from St Petrsburg to Gyumri

10:18 • 16/02

Aravot: Anti-Armenian propaganda contributed to tension over Karabakh, says official

09:41 • 16/02

Jennifer Aniston and Justin Theroux SPLIT after just two years of marriage

09:12 • 16/02

Australia PM Barnaby Joyce 'inept', says prime minister

18:18 • 14/02

Armenia named romantic travel destination

17:20 • 14/02

New anti-Russia sanctions ‘unrelated to Armenia’ – analyst

16:02 • 14/02

International community ‘turning blind eye’ to Turkey’s aggression – expert

15:33 • 14/02

Converse Bank offers agricultural loans

15:04 • 14/02

Amazon amid rare corporate layoff

14:18 • 14/02

Garo Paylan: Istanbul-Armenians unable to elect patriarch for 10 years       

13:27 • 14/02

Mammadyarov: EU-Azerbaijan cooperation not to affect Azerbaijan's partnership with Russia

12:54 • 14/02

Second US federal judge bars against Trump administration from ending DACA

12:44 • 14/02

Genes remain active after death

12:24 • 14/02

South Korea to pay North at Winter Olympics Olympics

12:13 • 14/02

Google Doodle celebrates Valentine’s Day 2018, Winter Olympics with two lovebirds skating together

12:03 • 14/02

Rare photos of celebrities back in days captured by one lucky teen photographer

11:46 • 14/02

Turkish citizen apprehended after illegally crossing Armenia’s border

11:15 • 14/02

No serious cooperation between our private sectors - head of Iran-Armenia Chamber of Commerce

09:35 • 14/02

Danish Quee’s husband Prince Henrik Dies at 83

09:15 • 14/02

Russian reported killed in Syria airstrikes

18:38 • 13/02

Planned sale of US fighters to Turkey ‘to be problematic for Armenia’ – Russian expert

17:32 • 13/02

Trump says America won't build more nuclear weapons – if other nations make commitments first

17:13 • 13/02

US planning cuts in economic, military aid to Armenia

16:21 • 13/02

Woman, 21, has abandoned by her husband and called a witch because of 'sweating' blood from eyes

15:57 • 13/02

Armen Sargsyan 'far more suitable candidate for prime minister' – Heritage party rep