Tehran statement offers good chances to Armenia in Karabakh settlement – French-Armenian analyst
The joint statement adopted by the Russian, Azerbaijani and Iranian presidents in Tehran may give Armenia serious advantages in the peace process over Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh), according to Kayts Minasyan, an analyst at the Paris-based Center of Strategic Studies.
In an interview with Tert.am, the expert said he sees good chances for the country especially in the light of the recent developments in Azerbaijan.
“Azerbaijan could not have been opposed to the Russian and Iranian presidents. It should have given its consent, expressing readiness for a peaceful solution given that attendance at the meeting was extremely important for the country against the backdrop of its increasing role for the two superpowers’ presidents. We need to consider especially the recent developments in Azerbaijan – the corruption scandals, bribery deals with European officials etc,” he said.
As a serious motivating factor, the expert cited also the recently launched Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (BTK) railway, describing its construction as a "diplomatic salvation' for Azerbaijan giving it a central role in the South Caucasus region.
“Azerbaijan’s presence is really difficult after those diplomatic scandals. Having and receiving power, Aliyev did not actually lose much, but it is necessary to also consider that there are differences between declaring they are not wishing a war and practicing what they preach in essence. So the important thing for Armenia under the circumstances is to pursue the right policy line to explore chances of a peaceful conflict solution relying on the Tehran statement,” he said, stressing further the importance of strong-worded statements against possible military sabotage or a full-scale war.
Asked to comment on the repeatedly voiced opinions that Azerbaijan’s role is not quite essential in that trilateral format, Minasyan said he is more inclined to believe that the country is ready for direct (if not mutual) concessions with any state.
“All they need to do is to look like a ‘good student’ and a good government. They can agree to concessions with practically any state except Armenia and the Armenian people. They want the Armenians to either be wiped off the face of the earth or just to flee. Should they agree to mutual concessions with Armenia, it will be a great sacrifice for them,” he said.
Admitting that all the Azerbaijani efforts are aimed at pushing Armenia to isolation, Minasyan said he doesn’t think that the BTK railway or the Iran-Azerbaijan rail link would help them realize the plan.
Asked to comment on the EU-Armenia Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement, the French-Armenian expert described it as a serious effort for the country towards overcoming the isolation.
“If Armenia signs an agreement also with Iran and Turkmenistan, deepening its relations with the Islamic Republic, Azerbaijan’s desire will hardly ever likely to come true. So we have only to wait and see now,” he said.
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