Lavrov’s optimism about Karabakh linked to positive experience – Armenian analyst
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s recent statement, expressing optimism about a breakthrough over Nagorno-Karabakh, is linked to that country's somewhat more active efforts in the peace process and attempts to attain positive outcomes, says an Armenian political analyst.
“This is why the Russian side is now heard voicing optimistic, as well as promising opinions. But the reality is, unfortunately, different. What we see is absolutely the contrary, with the recent years being the tensest period in Armenia-Azerbaijan relations,” Hrant Melik-Shahnazaryan told Tert.am, commenting on the past years’ repeated escalations along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border and the Nagorno-Karabakh Line of Contact.
The analyst ruled out the possibility of renewed talks against the background of Azerbaijan’s unwillingness to abide by the agreements reached at the Vienna and St Petersburg summits (which aimed to bring the situation under control and maintain peace).
“Also, we should keep in mind that Azerbaijan made an attempt to resume the war in April. That cannot be without consequences or leave the situation unchanged,” he added.
The expert said he finds that all agreements should rely on the past experience. “We have often heard Azerbaijani officials say that they back a peaceful settlement, but their steps run counter to their statements. Whenever the sides are said to have agreed on specific points, it’s all a matter of time; we have wait and see to what extent Azerbaijan is ready to abide by the agreements. The key issue is stabilization, and confidence that Azerbaijan will not strive for a military solution”.
It is too naïve to trust in Azerbaijan’s promises, as the country is not expecting any changes, Melik-Shahnazaryan added. “Even a renewed negotiation process can be treated as a success, but before doing that, we need confidence[-building] mechanisms and an increased number of observers. Azerbaijan must abandon its theses; Artsakh must become a negotiating party,” he said, calling for a consistent approach by Armenia.
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