Armenian economist shares forecasts on 2017 developments

16:23 • 06.01.17



The year 2017 is going to be a period of serious challenges in both the domestic and foreign economies, according to Atom Margaryan, a dean at the Armenian State University of Economics.


Speaking to Tert.am, Margaryan highlighted particularly the expected strengthening of the US Dollar and depreciation of the Euro, as well as the increasingly deteriorating problems in most Eurozone countries as major problems facing most of the states in Europe. As for the developments in Armenia’s economy, the ecpnomist predicted financial stability risks, which he said deal particularly with the state debt and the State Budget.


In his words, the policy change in the United States after Donald Trump’s election is a serious move signaling an economic progress. “If implemented, the key clauses and provisions in Trump’s pre-election platform will have a serious impact on not only the American economy but also the economies around the globe. And certain signals are now visible. It has to do, first of all, with the tougher policies aimed at boosting job creation, as well as the Dollar and the federal reserve system in general by pursuing conservative policies and nepotism, and employing certain other elements. The possible developments may lead to the strengthening of the Dollar,” Margaryan added.


The economist said he expects the said processes to boost also the investments in the United States and increase the country’s competitiveness on the international market, especially with China.


Commenting on the Eurasian common market (member states of the Eurasian Economic Union), Margaryan said he expects a high economic activity especially in the trade of non-ferrous metals.


Armenia’s major challenges in the first half of this year are ensuring financial stability, particularly, a balanced budget system.

According to Mr Margaryan, political factors – parliamentary elections and elections to the Yerevan City Council – are not contributory factors as they send negative signals to investors.

“And it can clearly be seen from the results of 2016. Therefore, the trends will continue, and the forecast 3.2% economic growth is quite optimistic,” the economist said.

Given all the political risks, any serious economic progress can hardly be forecast for Armenia.

Much also depends on the politico-military situation in the region, developments related to the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process, possible escalation. Those are factors that do not send positive signals to investors.

“On the other hand, if we take a mid-term view, consistent implementation of the new government’s programs could counterbalance the negative signals. In this context, I mean creation of more jobs in the real economic sector, promotion of investments, reduction of black economy, consistent application laws criminalizing illegal enrichment, anti-corruption measures,” Mr Margaryan said.

Anush Dashtents





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