Trump administration unlikely to recognize Genocide – Richard Giragosian
In an interview with Tert.am, Director of the Regional Studies Center Richard Giragosian shared his expectations of regional developments in the run-up to the Genocide anniversary and the possible use by US President Donald Trump of the right legal wording in his April 24 address.
Mr Giragosian, with April 24 drawing near, Armenians are again beset with the question whether or not [President] Trump will say “genocide” after all. Most think he will not, as he never spoke about that, and also because [US ] has [common] interests with Turkey. Certain analysts, however, find that Trump is an unpredictable [political] figure who may be expected to do absolutely anything, and even use ‘genocide’.
It is very unlikely that the Trump Administration will recognize the Armenian Genocide on 24 April. While Washington is likely to keep the same wording as previous White House statements, there are two factors suggesting that there will be no change in US policy. First, President Trump is planning a new more friendly strategy to engage Turkey in the fight against ISIS and over operations in Syria. This is also evident in Trump’s very quick message of “congratulations” to President Erdogan, despite even what the State Department saw as a flawed and tainted referendum. A second factor is, of course, Trump’s past business ties to Turkey, which seems to determine his policy preferences, in a negative way ad to the detriment of US interests.
The Armenian organizations in the United States were earlier reported to be trying to establish ties with Trump and his administration, but to the best of our knowledge, they haven’t yet succeeded in their efforts. What reasons do you think prevent them from doing that, and what are your predictions?
I have no idea. I have been living in Armenia for over 10 years, and I do not know what is going on in the Diaspora.
The US-Russia relations have entered a new phase of crisis; moreover, the Russian TV channels seem to be heralding the Third World War. With this in mind, to what extent do you think that [first President Levon] Ter-Petrosyan was realistic in his analysis that Russia has given the west it “Blessing” to settle the [Nagorno-]Karabakh conflict, with only a couple of issues remaining unsettled.
Of the many shortcomings in the former president’s analysis, his most serious error is to place too much hope and far too much power in the assumption that Russia will unilaterally determine the agenda in the region. Even for Putin, he has to be more careful, and the situation is not as basic as Ter Petrosyan seems to believe.
With Turkey’s new Constitution giving an increasing power to Islam, what hazards do you see for Armenia as a neighbor?
President Erdogan will still struggle to manage a growing set of challenges. With an economy in crisis, as unemployment is at a seven-year high, tourism has sagged, and the currency has weakened by one-fifth in less than a year, Erdogan also faces a triad of threats, comprised of a mounting internal military campaign against the Kurds, a difficult cross-border military intervention in Syria, and an ever-present terrorist threat. And with the largest Syrian refugee population in the world, the outlook for the Turkish leader, no matter how powerful, remains as discouraging as it is daunting.
At a meeting with his Azerbaijani counterpart, Iran’s minister of defense expressed hope that the Karabakh issue will be resolved without a third power’s intervention. Do you think it was a hint warning Turkey against intervention, or did he mean a third country?
Clearly, Iran is pressing to exclude both Turkey and Russia from more active engagement in this region. And despite this message, Iran is not ready to fully or forcefully return as a regional player powerful enough to stand against either Moscow or Ankara, however.
What expectations do you think we should have from the Tsarukyan Alliance [the second majority party elected to parliament]. Is it likely to declare itself an opposition political force, and if so, will it be a radical opposition or just try to offer “an alternative” as did its predecessor [the Prosperous Armenia party].
It is still too soon to say, but there is an interesting scenario, whereby the 30-seat Tsarukyan Alliance is pressured and persuaded to enter into a new “national unity” coalition. Under both options, the Republican Party would still retain the primary position. And even based on the second option, the inherent vulnerability of Gagik Tsarukyan, the oligarch leader of the alliance whose own sources of wealth could always be justifiably used by the state as grounds for a tax audit or criminal investigation, grants the Republicans important leverage. For that reason, it is also highly unlikely that the Tsarukyan Alliance would continue to pose as an opposition force, especially as the political risks for its leader would be too high to forego the obvious benefits of returning to government.
Videos
Interview with Francis Malige, EBRD Managing Director
Armenians Commemorating 106th Anniversary of Genocide
Biden Under Pressure to Recognize Armenian Genocide - KTLA 5 News
Governance and Oversight Capacities Account for Our Bank's Robust Management System - Philip Lynch, Independent Board Member at Ameriabank
'Mr. President, It Is Now in Your Power to Right Decades of Denial' - US Congressman Adam Schiff Urges Joe Biden to Recognize Armenian Genocide
Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh in Despair After Trauma of Military Defeat - France 24
Interview with Kakhaber Kiknavelidze, an Independent Member of Ameriabank Board of Directors
Only Terrorists Keep Hostages, Putting Forward Preconditions for Their Release - Edmon Marukyan
Rep Adam Schiff Says Congress Should Recognize Artsakh
UN's Guterres Issues Global Appeal to Make 2021 'Year of Healing'
NASA's Mars 2020 Perseverance Rover Landing Animations
Azerbaijan Uses Prohibited Phosphorus Chemical Munitions - Defense Army Video
Artsakh Defense Army Units Neutralizing Azerbaijani Arms Supplies
Artsakh Defense Army Units Neutralizing Azerbaijani Drone
Nagorno-Karabakh's Status Has Been At the Heart of Our Approach - Zohrab Mnatsakanyan
Artsakh Defense Army Releases Video Featuring Damaged Azerbaijani Military Equipment
Artsakh Defense Army Units Inflicting Manpower Losses on Azerbaijan
Gas Pipeline Damaged in Azerbaijani Fire Targeting Nagorno-Karabakh's Capital
President Armen Sarkissian Meets Emmanuel Macron at Élysée Palace
Artsakh Defense Army Neutralizes Azerbaijani Military Hardware
Artsakh Defense Army Units Neutralizing Azerbaijani Military Infrastructures
President Armen Sarkissian Meets with NATO Secretary-General in Brussels
Buildings and Homes Lying in Ruins in Nagorno-Karabakh's Capital After Azerbaijani Shelling
Artsakh Defense Army's Precision Fire Gives Deadly Blow to Enemy
Artsakh Defense Army Units Destroying Azerbaijani Tank
Zohrab Mnatsakanyan: Ceasefire Does not Mandate Azerbaijan to Kill Civilians and Hit Civilian Settlements
Armenians Protest Outside Turkrish Embassy in Los Angeles
Losses in Azerbaijan's Military Featured in Defense Army Footage
Artsakh Defense Army Neutralizing Adversary's Transport Column
Turkey openly backs Azerbaijan 'far more aggressively than in the past' - ABC News on Syrian mercenaries fighting in Karabakh
Iconic Armenian Church Hit in Azerbaijani Attacks in Nagorno-Karabakh City (photos)
Artsakh Defense Army Continues High-Precision Strikes
War Situation in Karabakh on European Parliament's Agenda
Call for Urgent Action: Armenian Journalist Brings Intn'l Colleagues' Attention to Situation iin Artsakh After Azerbaijani Attacks
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Nagorno-Karabakh's Capital Under Azerbaijani Strikes
Armenian Armed Forces Neutralize Azerbaijani Defense Positions
ArmenianTroops Destroy Azerbaijani Armored Fighting Vehicle on Frontline
There is a solid evidence that Azerbaijan has launched a thoroughly planned attack on the NKR
EU calls for Immediate End to Hostilities over Nagorno-Karabakh
- 15:20 • 24.05.21 Interview with Francis Malige, EBRD Managing Director
- 11:39 • 24.04.21 Armenians Commemorating 106th Anniversary of Genocide
- 09:40 • 23.04.21 Biden Under Pressure to Recognize Armenian Genocide - KTLA 5 News
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- 14:09 • 21.04.21 'Mr. President, It Is Now in Your Power to Right Decades of Denial' - US Congressman Adam Schiff Urges Joe Biden to Recognize Armenian Genocide
- 12:37 • 03.04.21 Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh in Despair After Trauma of Military Defeat - France 24
- 17:33 • 11.03.21 Interview with Kakhaber Kiknavelidze, an Independent Member of Ameriabank Board of Directors
- 17:57 • 26.01.21 Only Terrorists Keep Hostages, Putting Forward Preconditions for Their Release - Edmon Marukyan
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- 13:33 • 31.10.20 Azerbaijan Uses Prohibited Phosphorus Chemical Munitions - Defense Army Video
- 16:37 • 30.10.20 Artsakh Defense Army Units Neutralizing Azerbaijani Arms Supplies
- 11:25 • 28.10.20 Artsakh Defense Army Units Neutralizing Azerbaijani Drone
- 13:45 • 24.10.20 Nagorno-Karabakh's Status Has Been At the Heart of Our Approach - Zohrab Mnatsakanyan
- 11:51 • 24.10.20 Artsakh Defense Army Releases Video Featuring Damaged Azerbaijani Military Equipment
- 11:40 • 24.10.20 Artsakh Defense Army Units Inflicting Manpower Losses on Azerbaijan
- 10:39 • 24.10.20 Gas Pipeline Damaged in Azerbaijani Fire Targeting Nagorno-Karabakh's Capital
- 12:41 • 23.10.20 President Armen Sarkissian Meets Emmanuel Macron at Élysée Palace
- 12:16 • 23.10.20 Artsakh Defense Army Neutralizes Azerbaijani Military Hardware
- 12:02 • 22.10.20 Artsakh Defense Army Units Neutralizing Azerbaijani Military Infrastructures
- 10:35 • 22.10.20 President Armen Sarkissian Meets with NATO Secretary-General in Brussels
- 10:51 • 17.10.20 Buildings and Homes Lying in Ruins in Nagorno-Karabakh's Capital After Azerbaijani Shelling
- 15:09 • 15.10.20 Artsakh Defense Army's Precision Fire Gives Deadly Blow to Enemy
- 13:13 • 13.10.20 Artsakh Defense Army Units Destroying Azerbaijani Tank
- 12:56 • 12.10.20 Zohrab Mnatsakanyan: Ceasefire Does not Mandate Azerbaijan to Kill Civilians and Hit Civilian Settlements
- 12:23 • 12.10.20 Armenians Protest Outside Turkrish Embassy in Los Angeles
- 17:23 • 09.10.20 Losses in Azerbaijan's Military Featured in Defense Army Footage
- 15:53 • 09.10.20 Artsakh Defense Army Neutralizing Adversary's Transport Column
- 14:11 • 09.10.20 Turkey openly backs Azerbaijan 'far more aggressively than in the past' - ABC News on Syrian mercenaries fighting in Karabakh
- 15:52 • 08.10.20 Iconic Armenian Church Hit in Azerbaijani Attacks in Nagorno-Karabakh City (photos)
- 10:57 • 08.10.20 Artsakh Defense Army Continues High-Precision Strikes
- 14:24 • 07.10.20 War Situation in Karabakh on European Parliament's Agenda
- 19:31 • 05.10.20 Call for Urgent Action: Armenian Journalist Brings Intn'l Colleagues' Attention to Situation iin Artsakh After Azerbaijani Attacks
- 16:17 • 04.10.20 Turkey's Support to Syrian Mercenaries Fighting Against Artsakh: Facts About Azerbaijani Aggression
- 12:39 • 04.10.20 Nagorno-Karabakh's Capital Under Azerbaijani Strikes
- 13:49 • 03.10.20 Armenian Armed Forces Neutralize Azerbaijani Defense Positions
- 10:12 • 29.09.20 ArmenianTroops Destroy Azerbaijani Armored Fighting Vehicle on Frontline
- 23:42 • 28.09.20 There is a solid evidence that Azerbaijan has launched a thoroughly planned attack on the NKR
- 18:45 • 28.09.20 EU calls for Immediate End to Hostilities over Nagorno-Karabakh
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