No serious foreign policy changes should be expected in Armenia - Richard Giragosian
No serious foreign policy changes should be expected in Armenia after the “velvet revolution” that led to a change of government, according to Richard Giragosian, the director of the Regional Studies Center (RSC).
In an interview with Tert.am, the analyst cited the newly appointed prime minister’s reassurances given to Moscow, considering his statement a serious hint about future policy orientations. “This suggests no strategic U-turn in foreign policy,” he said, highlighting at the same time two important factors “suggesting some change or modification”.
As a very important move by the new government, Giragosyan cited the foreign minister’s replacement. “He [Zohrab Mnatsakanyan] is both young, energetic and dynamic, but also has good technical expeience, having negotiated the past Association Agreement with the EU. This will actually also reassure Armenian-EU relations,” he noted.
Giragosian further emphasized Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s position on the Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) peace process (as the second reason indicating some change).
“Prime Minister Pashinyan and his new cabinet has a[n] overwhelming priority on domestic issues first – not foreign policy. Therefore, we should expect a retreat to a much more cautious, safe approach towards a peace process, trying to elevate the status and stature of Nagorno-Karabakh. So Armenia is expected to be much less active – in [both] the peace process and the negotiations,” he added.
Commenting upon the prime minister’s call for returning Artsakh to the process as a direct negotiating party, Giragosian said he would expect increased pressures upon Azerbaijan in case of such a scenario of developments. “The pressure will be increased on Azerbaijan even by the Minsk Group in terms of 'nothing has worked to date excluding Nagorno-Karabakh is both irresponsible and dangerous'. But it’s a long-term change, and it remains to be seen whether it will work. But in a good sense, Nagorno-Karabakh has a new foreign minister - the very qualified Masis Mayilyan, so there is now an opportunity for Karabakh to be much more active on its own.”
Asked whether the widely accepted belief that Nikol Pashinyan selected pro-Western politicians to form the new cabinet may pose any challenge to Armenia’s developing relationship with Russia, Giragosian replied, “In general, I don’t think that they could be or should be qualified as pro-European. I think they are more pro-Armenian (and not necessarily pro-American or pro-Russian). The bigger problem and the much more important problem is the lack of experience. And this, combined with pressure from high expectations, is more of a challenge for the new cabinet. At the same time, we should be extremely careful in terms of greater balance between the West and Russia, especially now that Russia has lost two friends in the Armenian government – former Foreign Minister [Edward] Nalbandian and the former acting prime minister, previous prime minister, Karen Karapetyan. Therefore, we should expect, perhaps, Russia to strengthen its degree of power and pressure on the Armenian government in terms of Armenia’s dependence on Russia – for [natural] gas, for guns and for goods, in terms of Eurasian Economic Union and CSTO, as well as dependence on Russian gas supplies. ”
The expert meantime stressed the need of demonstrating a higher degree of caution. “Armenia has to be careful in becoming more independent and more sovereign - not necessarily provoking a conflict with Russia. But I do think there are grounds for optimism, especially because Armenia is not only more reliable than Georgia, less confrontational than Ukraine [but also] can demonstrate that Armenia’s value to Russia is much more than even Moscow has appreciated,” he added.
Addressing the Armenia-EU relations, Giragossian admitted that the renewed cooperation deal (Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement) was completed under the previous government. “This is an important achievement and foundation that Russia at that time allowed. So this is not something new in terms of deepening ties with the EU. But if we look also at the past – what’s also reassuring - is Armenia is developing its relationship more with the European Union, not necessarily with the United States. It’s less part of a bigger confrontation between [Russian President Vladimir] Putin and the West, so we are more hopeful. And the EU will play more of a strategic role in supporting economic and political reforms within Armenia,” the RSC director added.
Asked to comment on the future of Armenia-NATO relations, Giragosian said he thinks that the appointment of Davit Tonoyan, a former deputy minister of defense, to a full ministerial position, is really important to “furthering defense reforms”. “[It] also implies a deepening of ties with NATO. But Armenia has long been smart in terms of not seeking NATO membership. It’s unnecessary for Armenian defense, and it would be a provocation. So we shouldn’t expect that much in terms of Armenia-NATO relations”.
As for other possible foreign policy vectors, Giragosian said he highly appreciated the successful efforts towards maintaining balance between the two poles (West and Russia). “The most interesting about Armenia’s pursuit of greater balance in terms of the West and Russia [is that] we see the development or exploration of a third vector or party, i.e. – China, and this should be only encouraged and deepened,” he added.
Videos
Interview with Francis Malige, EBRD Managing Director
Armenians Commemorating 106th Anniversary of Genocide
Biden Under Pressure to Recognize Armenian Genocide - KTLA 5 News
Governance and Oversight Capacities Account for Our Bank's Robust Management System - Philip Lynch, Independent Board Member at Ameriabank
'Mr. President, It Is Now in Your Power to Right Decades of Denial' - US Congressman Adam Schiff Urges Joe Biden to Recognize Armenian Genocide
Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh in Despair After Trauma of Military Defeat - France 24
Interview with Kakhaber Kiknavelidze, an Independent Member of Ameriabank Board of Directors
Only Terrorists Keep Hostages, Putting Forward Preconditions for Their Release - Edmon Marukyan
Rep Adam Schiff Says Congress Should Recognize Artsakh
UN's Guterres Issues Global Appeal to Make 2021 'Year of Healing'
NASA's Mars 2020 Perseverance Rover Landing Animations
Azerbaijan Uses Prohibited Phosphorus Chemical Munitions - Defense Army Video
Artsakh Defense Army Units Neutralizing Azerbaijani Arms Supplies
Artsakh Defense Army Units Neutralizing Azerbaijani Drone
Nagorno-Karabakh's Status Has Been At the Heart of Our Approach - Zohrab Mnatsakanyan
Artsakh Defense Army Releases Video Featuring Damaged Azerbaijani Military Equipment
Artsakh Defense Army Units Inflicting Manpower Losses on Azerbaijan
Gas Pipeline Damaged in Azerbaijani Fire Targeting Nagorno-Karabakh's Capital
President Armen Sarkissian Meets Emmanuel Macron at Élysée Palace
Artsakh Defense Army Neutralizes Azerbaijani Military Hardware
Artsakh Defense Army Units Neutralizing Azerbaijani Military Infrastructures
President Armen Sarkissian Meets with NATO Secretary-General in Brussels
Buildings and Homes Lying in Ruins in Nagorno-Karabakh's Capital After Azerbaijani Shelling
Artsakh Defense Army's Precision Fire Gives Deadly Blow to Enemy
Artsakh Defense Army Units Destroying Azerbaijani Tank
Zohrab Mnatsakanyan: Ceasefire Does not Mandate Azerbaijan to Kill Civilians and Hit Civilian Settlements
Armenians Protest Outside Turkrish Embassy in Los Angeles
Losses in Azerbaijan's Military Featured in Defense Army Footage
Artsakh Defense Army Neutralizing Adversary's Transport Column
Turkey openly backs Azerbaijan 'far more aggressively than in the past' - ABC News on Syrian mercenaries fighting in Karabakh
Iconic Armenian Church Hit in Azerbaijani Attacks in Nagorno-Karabakh City (photos)
Artsakh Defense Army Continues High-Precision Strikes
War Situation in Karabakh on European Parliament's Agenda
Call for Urgent Action: Armenian Journalist Brings Intn'l Colleagues' Attention to Situation iin Artsakh After Azerbaijani Attacks
Turkey's Support to Syrian Mercenaries Fighting Against Artsakh: Facts About Azerbaijani Aggression
Nagorno-Karabakh's Capital Under Azerbaijani Strikes
Armenian Armed Forces Neutralize Azerbaijani Defense Positions
ArmenianTroops Destroy Azerbaijani Armored Fighting Vehicle on Frontline
There is a solid evidence that Azerbaijan has launched a thoroughly planned attack on the NKR
EU calls for Immediate End to Hostilities over Nagorno-Karabakh
- 15:20 • 24.05.21 Interview with Francis Malige, EBRD Managing Director
- 11:39 • 24.04.21 Armenians Commemorating 106th Anniversary of Genocide
- 09:40 • 23.04.21 Biden Under Pressure to Recognize Armenian Genocide - KTLA 5 News
- 15:34 • 22.04.21 Governance and Oversight Capacities Account for Our Bank's Robust Management System - Philip Lynch, Independent Board Member at Ameriabank
- 14:09 • 21.04.21 'Mr. President, It Is Now in Your Power to Right Decades of Denial' - US Congressman Adam Schiff Urges Joe Biden to Recognize Armenian Genocide
- 12:37 • 03.04.21 Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh in Despair After Trauma of Military Defeat - France 24
- 17:33 • 11.03.21 Interview with Kakhaber Kiknavelidze, an Independent Member of Ameriabank Board of Directors
- 17:57 • 26.01.21 Only Terrorists Keep Hostages, Putting Forward Preconditions for Their Release - Edmon Marukyan
- 13:33 • 22.01.21 Rep Adam Schiff Says Congress Should Recognize Artsakh
- 09:42 • 29.12.20 UN's Guterres Issues Global Appeal to Make 2021 'Year of Healing'
- 18:41 • 24.12.20 NASA's Mars 2020 Perseverance Rover Landing Animations
- 13:33 • 31.10.20 Azerbaijan Uses Prohibited Phosphorus Chemical Munitions - Defense Army Video
- 16:37 • 30.10.20 Artsakh Defense Army Units Neutralizing Azerbaijani Arms Supplies
- 11:25 • 28.10.20 Artsakh Defense Army Units Neutralizing Azerbaijani Drone
- 13:45 • 24.10.20 Nagorno-Karabakh's Status Has Been At the Heart of Our Approach - Zohrab Mnatsakanyan
- 11:51 • 24.10.20 Artsakh Defense Army Releases Video Featuring Damaged Azerbaijani Military Equipment
- 11:40 • 24.10.20 Artsakh Defense Army Units Inflicting Manpower Losses on Azerbaijan
- 10:39 • 24.10.20 Gas Pipeline Damaged in Azerbaijani Fire Targeting Nagorno-Karabakh's Capital
- 12:41 • 23.10.20 President Armen Sarkissian Meets Emmanuel Macron at Élysée Palace
- 12:16 • 23.10.20 Artsakh Defense Army Neutralizes Azerbaijani Military Hardware
- 12:02 • 22.10.20 Artsakh Defense Army Units Neutralizing Azerbaijani Military Infrastructures
- 10:35 • 22.10.20 President Armen Sarkissian Meets with NATO Secretary-General in Brussels
- 10:51 • 17.10.20 Buildings and Homes Lying in Ruins in Nagorno-Karabakh's Capital After Azerbaijani Shelling
- 15:09 • 15.10.20 Artsakh Defense Army's Precision Fire Gives Deadly Blow to Enemy
- 13:13 • 13.10.20 Artsakh Defense Army Units Destroying Azerbaijani Tank
- 12:56 • 12.10.20 Zohrab Mnatsakanyan: Ceasefire Does not Mandate Azerbaijan to Kill Civilians and Hit Civilian Settlements
- 12:23 • 12.10.20 Armenians Protest Outside Turkrish Embassy in Los Angeles
- 17:23 • 09.10.20 Losses in Azerbaijan's Military Featured in Defense Army Footage
- 15:53 • 09.10.20 Artsakh Defense Army Neutralizing Adversary's Transport Column
- 14:11 • 09.10.20 Turkey openly backs Azerbaijan 'far more aggressively than in the past' - ABC News on Syrian mercenaries fighting in Karabakh
- 15:52 • 08.10.20 Iconic Armenian Church Hit in Azerbaijani Attacks in Nagorno-Karabakh City (photos)
- 10:57 • 08.10.20 Artsakh Defense Army Continues High-Precision Strikes
- 14:24 • 07.10.20 War Situation in Karabakh on European Parliament's Agenda
- 19:31 • 05.10.20 Call for Urgent Action: Armenian Journalist Brings Intn'l Colleagues' Attention to Situation iin Artsakh After Azerbaijani Attacks
- 16:17 • 04.10.20 Turkey's Support to Syrian Mercenaries Fighting Against Artsakh: Facts About Azerbaijani Aggression
- 12:39 • 04.10.20 Nagorno-Karabakh's Capital Under Azerbaijani Strikes
- 13:49 • 03.10.20 Armenian Armed Forces Neutralize Azerbaijani Defense Positions
- 10:12 • 29.09.20 ArmenianTroops Destroy Azerbaijani Armored Fighting Vehicle on Frontline
- 23:42 • 28.09.20 There is a solid evidence that Azerbaijan has launched a thoroughly planned attack on the NKR
- 18:45 • 28.09.20 EU calls for Immediate End to Hostilities over Nagorno-Karabakh
Most popular articles Today Yesterday For a week
-
Event 11:27 • 18/04 New streets in Koti equipped with illumination operated via automatic and remote control Last year, 5 streets were illuminated in Koti, with 2 of them being especially important due to their proximity to the border. They are just about one kilometer away from the border in a straight line.
Economy
-
10:59 • 08.04.24 Ucom continues network modernization in regions of Armenia
-
15:41 • 29.03.24 Director General of Ucom took part in a recruiting conference
Event
-
12:22 • 16.04.24 Ucom continues network modernization in regions of Armenia
-
11:11 • 10.04.24 Ucom has released a new package offer