Time is Pashinyan’s worst enemy – European Policy Center on Armenia’s ‘velvet revolution’
By Amanda Paul, Senior Policy Analyst
and Dennis Sammut, Member of the EPC's Strategic Council; Director, LINKS
Nikol Pashinyan’s meteoric rise to the leadership of Armenia has happened unexpectedly. Widespread discontent with the administration of former president Serzh Sargsyan, youth's frustration with corrupt practices, and Pashinyan's sheer audacity turned what looked like an impossible task into a reality.
A protest movement that started quite modestly in late March, focusing primarily on trying to block the appointment of Sargsyan as the country's new prime minister with full executive powers, eventually forced the governing Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) to acquiesce to Pashinyan's demands.
The self-styled “velvet revolution” has created huge expectations. But Pashinyan’s ability to deliver remains constrained by a need to secure a popular mandate – not through the streets but the ballot box, and by Armenia’s complicated military and strategic relationship with its neighbours. Time is not on Pashinyan’s side, and there are some in Armenia who see him as a temporary inconvenience. They include corrupt oligarchs who have profited from Armenia's dysfunctional economy; small-time bureaucrats and military officers who fear to live in a more competitive environment; and elements within the RPA, which still holds a majority in parliament. They view Pashinyan as an aberration that shall eventually be jettisoned. Pashinyan hopes that the Armenian people will keep faith with him for long enough for him to start delivering the promised change.
Prioritising changes
Pashinyan understands that what the people want first and foremost is a fresh start, a better quality of life and justice against those who have pillaged Armenia since independence. Foreign and defence policy hardly featured as a theme during the street uprisings. Pashinyan has therefore opted to maintain continuity on these issues, at least for the moment. Armenia will thus remain embedded within the Russian sphere as a member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), while negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh will continue in the framework of the OSCE Minsk process. His domestic agenda, however, is ambitious.
Top priorities include cracking down on corruption, rooting out the deeply entrenched oligarchic system, transitional justice and “finding the stolen money”. As Pashinyan does not have a majority in Parliament, building a broad and robust political coalition is paramount. The government’s work plan will shortly be submitted to parliament, which is expected to be accepted. The upcoming parliamentary debate will indicate the battle-lines to come.
The new government knows it must secure an electoral success to seal the victory it has achieved on the streets. There is broad consensus that snap elections should take place before the end of 2018 to capitalise on the current wave of support. But, this may not be so straightforward. Parliament is to decide the timing of elections, and the RPA opposes snap elections. It wants to buy time in the hope that disillusionment with Pashinyan will set in. The RPA has promised to play a constructive role. Nevertheless, with its tentacles still spread through all three branches of power, its capacity to undermine the new government is considerable. Pashinyan may need to call Armenians back out on the street to keep the RPA in check. However, the prospect of permanent revolution is not one that he cherishes, or that Armenia needs.
Renovating Armenia under Putin’s shadow
Russia is a critical player in every facet of Armenia's life. Russia acquiesced to the change of guard in Yerevan, even if the Kremlin was not enthusiastic about it. Its silence rattled the RPA leadership in crucial moments of the transition. When Russia finally spoke, it was with great caution – underlining that the protests were an internal matter. Moscow may have learnt from its experience in Ukraine. To avoid igniting mass anti-Russian sentiment, the Kremlin seems less keen to back unpopular leaders.
Ultimately, Russia’s position is secure due to its control over the economy and its huge stake in Armenia’s security. The lack of alternative scenarios gives little room for manoeuvre for whoever is in power. Pashinyan has thus excluded foreign and security policy from his immediate agenda. During his meeting with President Putin on 14 May, Pashinyan strongly reassured him of the importance of Armenia’s strategic relationship with Russia even though as late as 2017 Pashinyan’s parliamentary bloc submitted legislation to withdraw from the Eurasian Economic Union.
Moscow may also disapprove Pashinyan domestic reforms, especially if they threaten Russia’s economic interests. The honeymoon with Pashinyan may be short-lived.
Ultimately, Russia’s position is secure due to its control over the economy and its huge stake in Armenia’s security. The lack of alternative scenarios gives little room for manoeuvre for whoever is in power. Pashinyan has thus excluded foreign and security policy from his immediate agenda. During his meeting with President Putin on 14 May, Pashinyan strongly reassured him of the importance of Armenia’s strategic relationship with Russia even though as late as 2017 Pashinyan’s parliamentary bloc submitted legislation to withdraw from the Eurasian Economic Union.
Moscow may also disapprove Pashinyan domestic reforms, especially if they threaten Russia’s economic interests. The honeymoon with Pashinyan may be short-lived.
What role for the EU?
The European Parliament and its national counterparts are currently ratifying the new Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between the EU and Armenia. CEPA’s importance has significantly grown because of the political changes in Yerevan. CEPA has widespread support in Armenia and contains tools and mechanisms that Pashinyan's willing and reform-minded government can use. Armenia's unique situation calls for a specific response from the EU. The European External Action Service should establish a task force under the chairmanship of the EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus to identify the aspects of CEPA that can be fast-tracked. It should also provide technical assistance and training in critical areas and sectors. This new task force should be time-bound and operate only for a fixed one term of 12 to 18 months.
Conclusion
Pashinyan achieved an astonishing popular victory. He must now quickly deliver results and manage the aspirations of his supporters. While he has rightly prioritised internal socio-economic and governance reforms, issues related to foreign and defence policy, including on Nagorno-Karabakh, will remain. While continuity may work in the short run, Pashinyan will eventually have to become his own man on these issues. Meanwhile, the peaceful popular movement that Pashinyan has led in the past weeks shall remain a source of inspiration for others who face similar apparently hopeless situations.
Videos
Interview with Francis Malige, EBRD Managing Director
Armenians Commemorating 106th Anniversary of Genocide
Biden Under Pressure to Recognize Armenian Genocide - KTLA 5 News
Governance and Oversight Capacities Account for Our Bank's Robust Management System - Philip Lynch, Independent Board Member at Ameriabank
'Mr. President, It Is Now in Your Power to Right Decades of Denial' - US Congressman Adam Schiff Urges Joe Biden to Recognize Armenian Genocide
Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh in Despair After Trauma of Military Defeat - France 24
Interview with Kakhaber Kiknavelidze, an Independent Member of Ameriabank Board of Directors
Only Terrorists Keep Hostages, Putting Forward Preconditions for Their Release - Edmon Marukyan
Rep Adam Schiff Says Congress Should Recognize Artsakh
UN's Guterres Issues Global Appeal to Make 2021 'Year of Healing'
NASA's Mars 2020 Perseverance Rover Landing Animations
Azerbaijan Uses Prohibited Phosphorus Chemical Munitions - Defense Army Video
Artsakh Defense Army Units Neutralizing Azerbaijani Arms Supplies
Artsakh Defense Army Units Neutralizing Azerbaijani Drone
Nagorno-Karabakh's Status Has Been At the Heart of Our Approach - Zohrab Mnatsakanyan
Artsakh Defense Army Releases Video Featuring Damaged Azerbaijani Military Equipment
Artsakh Defense Army Units Inflicting Manpower Losses on Azerbaijan
Gas Pipeline Damaged in Azerbaijani Fire Targeting Nagorno-Karabakh's Capital
President Armen Sarkissian Meets Emmanuel Macron at Élysée Palace
Artsakh Defense Army Neutralizes Azerbaijani Military Hardware
Artsakh Defense Army Units Neutralizing Azerbaijani Military Infrastructures
President Armen Sarkissian Meets with NATO Secretary-General in Brussels
Buildings and Homes Lying in Ruins in Nagorno-Karabakh's Capital After Azerbaijani Shelling
Artsakh Defense Army's Precision Fire Gives Deadly Blow to Enemy
Artsakh Defense Army Units Destroying Azerbaijani Tank
Zohrab Mnatsakanyan: Ceasefire Does not Mandate Azerbaijan to Kill Civilians and Hit Civilian Settlements
Armenians Protest Outside Turkrish Embassy in Los Angeles
Losses in Azerbaijan's Military Featured in Defense Army Footage
Artsakh Defense Army Neutralizing Adversary's Transport Column
Turkey openly backs Azerbaijan 'far more aggressively than in the past' - ABC News on Syrian mercenaries fighting in Karabakh
Iconic Armenian Church Hit in Azerbaijani Attacks in Nagorno-Karabakh City (photos)
Artsakh Defense Army Continues High-Precision Strikes
War Situation in Karabakh on European Parliament's Agenda
Call for Urgent Action: Armenian Journalist Brings Intn'l Colleagues' Attention to Situation iin Artsakh After Azerbaijani Attacks
Turkey's Support to Syrian Mercenaries Fighting Against Artsakh: Facts About Azerbaijani Aggression
Nagorno-Karabakh's Capital Under Azerbaijani Strikes
Armenian Armed Forces Neutralize Azerbaijani Defense Positions
ArmenianTroops Destroy Azerbaijani Armored Fighting Vehicle on Frontline
There is a solid evidence that Azerbaijan has launched a thoroughly planned attack on the NKR
EU calls for Immediate End to Hostilities over Nagorno-Karabakh
- 15:20 • 24.05.21 Interview with Francis Malige, EBRD Managing Director
- 11:39 • 24.04.21 Armenians Commemorating 106th Anniversary of Genocide
- 09:40 • 23.04.21 Biden Under Pressure to Recognize Armenian Genocide - KTLA 5 News
- 15:34 • 22.04.21 Governance and Oversight Capacities Account for Our Bank's Robust Management System - Philip Lynch, Independent Board Member at Ameriabank
- 14:09 • 21.04.21 'Mr. President, It Is Now in Your Power to Right Decades of Denial' - US Congressman Adam Schiff Urges Joe Biden to Recognize Armenian Genocide
- 12:37 • 03.04.21 Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh in Despair After Trauma of Military Defeat - France 24
- 17:33 • 11.03.21 Interview with Kakhaber Kiknavelidze, an Independent Member of Ameriabank Board of Directors
- 17:57 • 26.01.21 Only Terrorists Keep Hostages, Putting Forward Preconditions for Their Release - Edmon Marukyan
- 13:33 • 22.01.21 Rep Adam Schiff Says Congress Should Recognize Artsakh
- 09:42 • 29.12.20 UN's Guterres Issues Global Appeal to Make 2021 'Year of Healing'
- 18:41 • 24.12.20 NASA's Mars 2020 Perseverance Rover Landing Animations
- 13:33 • 31.10.20 Azerbaijan Uses Prohibited Phosphorus Chemical Munitions - Defense Army Video
- 16:37 • 30.10.20 Artsakh Defense Army Units Neutralizing Azerbaijani Arms Supplies
- 11:25 • 28.10.20 Artsakh Defense Army Units Neutralizing Azerbaijani Drone
- 13:45 • 24.10.20 Nagorno-Karabakh's Status Has Been At the Heart of Our Approach - Zohrab Mnatsakanyan
- 11:51 • 24.10.20 Artsakh Defense Army Releases Video Featuring Damaged Azerbaijani Military Equipment
- 11:40 • 24.10.20 Artsakh Defense Army Units Inflicting Manpower Losses on Azerbaijan
- 10:39 • 24.10.20 Gas Pipeline Damaged in Azerbaijani Fire Targeting Nagorno-Karabakh's Capital
- 12:41 • 23.10.20 President Armen Sarkissian Meets Emmanuel Macron at Élysée Palace
- 12:16 • 23.10.20 Artsakh Defense Army Neutralizes Azerbaijani Military Hardware
- 12:02 • 22.10.20 Artsakh Defense Army Units Neutralizing Azerbaijani Military Infrastructures
- 10:35 • 22.10.20 President Armen Sarkissian Meets with NATO Secretary-General in Brussels
- 10:51 • 17.10.20 Buildings and Homes Lying in Ruins in Nagorno-Karabakh's Capital After Azerbaijani Shelling
- 15:09 • 15.10.20 Artsakh Defense Army's Precision Fire Gives Deadly Blow to Enemy
- 13:13 • 13.10.20 Artsakh Defense Army Units Destroying Azerbaijani Tank
- 12:56 • 12.10.20 Zohrab Mnatsakanyan: Ceasefire Does not Mandate Azerbaijan to Kill Civilians and Hit Civilian Settlements
- 12:23 • 12.10.20 Armenians Protest Outside Turkrish Embassy in Los Angeles
- 17:23 • 09.10.20 Losses in Azerbaijan's Military Featured in Defense Army Footage
- 15:53 • 09.10.20 Artsakh Defense Army Neutralizing Adversary's Transport Column
- 14:11 • 09.10.20 Turkey openly backs Azerbaijan 'far more aggressively than in the past' - ABC News on Syrian mercenaries fighting in Karabakh
- 15:52 • 08.10.20 Iconic Armenian Church Hit in Azerbaijani Attacks in Nagorno-Karabakh City (photos)
- 10:57 • 08.10.20 Artsakh Defense Army Continues High-Precision Strikes
- 14:24 • 07.10.20 War Situation in Karabakh on European Parliament's Agenda
- 19:31 • 05.10.20 Call for Urgent Action: Armenian Journalist Brings Intn'l Colleagues' Attention to Situation iin Artsakh After Azerbaijani Attacks
- 16:17 • 04.10.20 Turkey's Support to Syrian Mercenaries Fighting Against Artsakh: Facts About Azerbaijani Aggression
- 12:39 • 04.10.20 Nagorno-Karabakh's Capital Under Azerbaijani Strikes
- 13:49 • 03.10.20 Armenian Armed Forces Neutralize Azerbaijani Defense Positions
- 10:12 • 29.09.20 ArmenianTroops Destroy Azerbaijani Armored Fighting Vehicle on Frontline
- 23:42 • 28.09.20 There is a solid evidence that Azerbaijan has launched a thoroughly planned attack on the NKR
- 18:45 • 28.09.20 EU calls for Immediate End to Hostilities over Nagorno-Karabakh
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