Richard Giragossian: Political crisis in Armenia involves battle of legitimacy
Director of the Regional Studies Center (RSC) Richard Giragossian has shared his analysis of the recent political standoff between the Armenian Government and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, highlighting the increasing urgency of timing the preterm parliamentary elections in an effort to resolve the "political crisis:.
In an interview with Tert.am on Wednesday, Giragossian described the current stage of developments as a kind “tipping point” for the country amid the continuing confrontation.
His comments are provided below:
In a dramatic and sudden political showdown between the Armenian parliament and the Armenian government of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan last night, the timing of early elections assumed a new sense of urgency. In a move that triggered this crisis that quickly turned into open confrontation, the formerly ruling but still parliamentary majority Republican Party, together with deputies from the Prosperous Armenia and ARF-Dashnak parties, pushed through a vote to amend the rules of procedure governing both the process of dissolving parliament and selecting a new prime minister. And while Armenia has survived serious crises in the past, from a constitutional crisis over the forced resignation of former President Ter Petrosian to a terrorist attack on parliament, it is clear that Armenia is once again at a “tipping point” as confrontation moves to crisis.
Crisis & Confrontation
For the Armenian government, the move was seen as a surprise, especially as both the Prosperous Armenia and Dashnak parties were critical in voting for Pashinyan in his election to the post of prime minister in May. Yet given the high stakes of today’s Armenian politics, the move is really much less of a surprise. For the Republican Party, the move was both an attempt to defend the parliament under their control and to defeat what now promises to be their politicl demise once early parliamentary elections are held.
Faced with the landslide victory of the Pashinyan political bloc in the recent Yerevan municipal elections, which only reaffirmed the sustained and sweeping popularity of both Pashinyan and his young cabinet, and demonstrated the demise of the older political elite, represented by the former ruling Republican-Prosperous-Dashnak coalition, the conformation was largely a move of weakness and defensive desperation.
Lessons Learned: A New Political Reality & Inescapable Elections
And amid the confusing and complicated parliamentary battle, there are at least two political lessons that this crisis reveals. First, in case there was any doubt, it is now evident that the current Armenian parliament does not reflect the new political reality and, therefore, is in need of a new more representative body, which can only come about through a free and fair election.
And a second lesson is that in the event of the needed election, the now discredited and deeply unpopular trio of the Republican, Prosperous and Dashnak parties will struggle to even pass the threshold to enter a new parliament. Yet despite the new political reality in the country, the absence of any real and constructive opposition party is a loss for the country, and any incumbent government needs to be constructively challenges and called to account over public policy.
Moreover, given the inexperience and as yet developing political maturity of the Pashinyan government, the danger of one-party dominance stems from the need for accountability over arrogance, which as Pashinan himself knows only too well from his lonely days as a vocal opposition challenger, is a real temptation for any politician.
What Comes Next?
Clearly, against this backdrop, there is a degree of risk, for both the current and former government. For the Republicans and their political allies, which have already been ejected from the government, the combination of a pronounced lack of legitimacy and a deepening of unpopular standing, the risk is rooted in their political demise, whereby they are unable or unwilling to transform their party or rebrand their policies.
The Risks
The risk for the Pashinyan, however, may be even more serious however, as next stage will be for Pashinyan to resign as premier (temporarily), and to block any rival candidature for two weeks, thereby triggering the dissolution of the parliament and moving to a new extraordinary election. The risk stems from the lack of any assurance that the already embattled Republicans, along with deputies from the Prosperous Armenia and Dashnak parties, will go along with such a plan. Furthermore, for them to accept this scenario by not putting forth a rival candidate to scuttle Pashinyan’s plan would only hasten their political demise, in an act of suicide that is unlikely and unprecedented.
And for them to surrender and submit twice, with two rounds of opportunity to propose a candidate, also suggests that Prime Minister Pashinyan may feel compelled to mobilize his supporters again and again, with demonstrators taking to the streets to resume what the government hails as a “velvet revolution.”
The implications from this are also far from positive. What this crisis truly involves is a battle for legitimacy. For the government, its legitimacy stems from “people power,” driven by popularity and determined by the power of street protests. For the discredited and outgoing political elite, the lack of legitimacy, due to the corruption and absence of free elections, has deprived it of any real appeal, and it is based on the imitation of democracy, with a weak institutional basis of controlling an outdated and now increasingly irrelevant parliament.
Conclusion
Thus, the only analytical conclusion is that there is no conclusion: this is very much a dynamic and not a static process, where the path forward and the results remain to be seen. Yet it is fair to say that the new Armenian political reality is irreversible and that the former government and its parties are increasingly that: former, and more suited to become footnotes in the country’s political history.
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