Paul Goble: Turkish leaders know they are on the losing side

Tert.am has sought comments from American analyst Paul Goble over the implications of US President Joe Biden's possible move to recognize the Armenian Genocide in his first April 24 address to the nation. Not ruling out the possibility of a formal acknowledgement of the historical fact, Mr. Goble said he expects the historic moment to be a natural continuation of the progressing global efforts to achieve a final recognition.

Mr. Goble, mainstream media are writing that US President Joe Biden is going to recognize the historical truth. Do you see any conditions for that?

Yes, I think it may happen because there is growing recognition around the world that what happened in 1915 must be condemned in a more forthright way.

What could be the underlying cause? The promise to the US-Armenian community in the course of his last year's pre-election campaign or the existing political problems with Turkey?

I think it has all to do with President Biden’s desire to keep his promises. Problems with Turkey may make that easier but they are not the cause.

Should the predictions turn out real, what will be the implications for Turkey?

Ankara will be angry but that anger won’t be overwhelming. I think Turkish leaders know that they are on the losing side of this issue.

What will be the advantages for Armenia?

Armenians may be pleased, but there is a down side. Seeking recognition of the 1915 mass deaths as a genocide has been the center of Diaspora identity so long that having achieved this victory, many Armenians outside of Armenia will likely be less motivated to work for Armenia than they were.