Foreign Policy: Turkey will never recognize the Armenian Genocide

By Hand Gutbrod

In April, the White House recognized the Armenian genocide, marking a milestone in Armenian foreign policy. The Armenian Ministry of Foreign Affairs lists genocide recognition as one of its major policy priorities, and Armenians around the world have long lobbied the international community for this end. Now, the big question facing Armenia and Armenians, including those in the diaspora, is where to go next. Today, more than 30 governments recognize the deportations and massacres perpetrated by Ottoman authorities in 1915 as genocide, and there are discussions about how Armenia—and other societies that have experienced trauma—can and should continue to commemorate the past in an ethical manner.

Some suggest Armenia should push for further genocide recognition in other countries, with the goal of eventually compelling Turkey—which has long been resistant to the move—to follow suit. But although such an approach is understandably attractive, it may be a strategic mistake in the long term. For Yerevan and the diaspora to better advance the interests of the Armenian people, it must refocus its diplomacy from lobbying the wider international community to transforming relations with the Turkish state and, more importantly, Turkish society. Inevitably, this will require some flexibility when it comes to Armenia’s framing of the past. But there are both practical and moral reasons why flexibility in the name of rapprochement with Turkey is the right move.

Practically, improved relations with Turkey are likely to increase the well-being of Armenians. As a landlocked state, an open border and active trade could facilitate economic development and alleviate poverty in a country where average salaries remain below $400 a month and close to 20 percent of the population say they would consider emigrating. Rapprochement with Ankara may also allow Yerevan to address its near-total dependence on Russia, thereby promoting greater regional stability. And Turkey would also benefit, especially through increased trade.

Equally important, however, are the moral dimensions of an Armenia-Turkey détente. Morality in this context may sound abstract, but in practice, it can serve as a guide to building relationships that are robust and can be sustained. A focus on achieving justice alone—through unilateral action or external arbitration—may provide a sense of validation to victims, but it can also fuel resentment, sour relationships, and lead to future violence. Armenia and Turkey are a case in point of this cycle in action. It’s time to break it.

To achieve more effective, mutually beneficial relations, both the Armenian and Turkish governments should work to reframe the Armenian genocide—and the wider suffering that accompanied the downfall of the Ottoman Empire—as a shared history. This is an inevitably long, emotionally strenuous process. For Armenia, it means shifting toward a diplomacy that invites Turkish society to engage—whether through exhibitions, travel, or academic and cultural exchange. Indeed, Armenian and Turkish societies have far more in common than what divides them. They may find the same in their histories.

It goes without saying the Turkish government won’t be recognizing the Armenian genocide anytime soon. But a reframed history has a reasonable chance of success of resonating with the Turkish public. The little polling available, conducted by the Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies in Istanbul, suggests only 9 percent of Turkish citizens believe Turkey “should apologize” for its actions against the Armenians and “should admit that what happened was a genocide.” Yet various other conciliatory steps—such as solely apologizing and other expressions of specific or generalized regret—garner the support of nearly 45 percent of the population. Most importantly, only 21 percent of the respondents said Turkey “should take no steps” on the “Armenian issue.” 25 percent did not respond to the question.
 
The potential willingness by nearly 55 percent of the Turkish people—and lack of objection by around 80 percent—to explore their troubled past represents a clear opening for it to be reframed inclusively. But how can this be done? One approach may be to focus on individual experiences rather than collective castigations.

Cem Özdemir, a German politician of Turkish descent, who argued for recognition of the Armenian genocide by the German parliament in 2016, has suggested more attention could be given to the many “Turkish Schindlers” who went out of their way to save their Armenian fellow citizens. Dozens of Turks and Kurds in the Ottoman Empire—from district governors to ordinary people—stood in solidarity with Armenians in various ways during the genocide, yet their stories remain largely untold.

Focusing on individual actions would reduce hateful narratives of the “other,” which have arguably stymied reconciliation efforts between Armenians and Turks. Genocide recognition sometimes mingles with anti-Turkish sentiment, which does little to shift attitudes in Turkey itself. As Armenian-American historian Ronald Suny wrote, “essentializing the other as irremediably evil leads to the endless repetition of the debilitating conflicts and deceptions of the last century.”