Political scientist explains delay in Armenia’s accession to EaEU
Political scientist Styopa Safaryan is not surprised at the Kazakh FM’s statement that the treaty on Armenia’s accession to the Eurasian Economic Union (EaEU) may be signed this October.
Months ago he stated that the issue of Armenia’s integration into the EaEU would be considered in late autumn.
In an interview with Tert.am, Safaryan pointed out numerous barriers to Armenia’s accession to the EaEU. To understand them one has to be well informed of both domestic political developments in Armenia and foreign policy development, as well as of the attitude the “troika” – Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan – have taken to Armenia’s accession.
“The troika’s two meetings were announced in Astana on May 29 – the first meeting scheduled for October, and the second scheduled for December. And the troika can only put its signature then. Even the Kazakh president stated [the treaty] could be signed, but not that it would be signed,” Safaryan said.
The problems that arose when the treaty was being drafted remain unsolved. As to the authorities’ statements that they are “technical problems,” Safaryan said:
“They say these are technical problems, but if it has come to the point when Armenia has to revise its relations with its partners in the World Trade Organization, as Russian First Vice-Premier Igor Shuvalov said, it cannot be considered ‘technical.’ If Armenia has to raise all the customs duties, which was stated by Shuvalov, in contrast to President Serzh Sargsyan’s speech, you cannot consider it technical either.”
Of importance is also the attitude to Armenia’s accession to the EaEU by Belarus and Kazakhstan.
“On April 28, Belarus clearly put the following question: ‘what is my benefit from Armenia’s accession? Will it not prove a burden?’ Of course, Armenia was not named, but the problem was raised. That is, it is understood Armenia is seeking to enjoy benefits rather than to offer them.”
“I do not have the impression that official Yerevan is happy about it. And Serzh Sargsyan said in Georgia that it was not a choice of policy – in favor of either Europe or Eurasia. Rather, it was done in our security and economic interests. That is, Armenia was not eager to join the Eurasian Economic Union. True, there was a period, before March 5, when Armenia sought to join the Customs Union as soon as possible. But when it was not allowed to, its interest waned, in contrast to the other states.”
With respect to Azerbaijan, Safaryan said:
“We can see that in Armenia’s integration into the EaEU, the issue of Armenia’s border with Nagorno-Karabakh was raised to tempt Azerbaijan. However much Azerbaijan officially states it has not been officially invited to join the EaEU, the recent statements, as well as Putin’s statement on it being advisable, and finally [Russian FM] Lavrov’s visit to Azerbaijan, are evidence that it has no time to think it over because Nagorno-Karabakh is not joining the Customs Union.”
As to whether Armenia could prove a burden, Safaryan said:
“Yes, Armenia’s role is important as a population, and not only as a population, but also as a country with a certain strategic location in the Caucasus. On the other hand, I would not like to overestimate Armenia’s importance because there would not be so many barriers to its accession to the EaEU if it were so important.”
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