Closer Russia-Turkey relations: a threat or not?
Closer strategic ties between Russia and Turkey pose a threat not only to Armenia, but also to the entire post-Soviet area, political scientist Ruben Mehrabyan told Tert.am.
“First of all, anti-Western Turkey poses a threat not only to Armenia, but also to the western community. In this context, the interests of both Armenia and the post-Soviet states and of the West coincide,” the expert said.
It was not in a day that Russia and Turkey formed strategic relations.
“During Erdogan’s rule, Turkey adopted a clear anti-Western course, with numerous coincidences with Putin’s Russia,” he said.
With respect to a 6% discount on the gas price for Turkey, Mr Mehrabyan said that Russia has nothing else but offer Turkey easy terms to promote consumption in Turkey as the second largest consumer of Russian gas after Germany.
Europe is now trying to reduce its energy dependence on Russia to a minimum.
“Closer Russian-Turkish relations may develop into a global threat because their anti-Western positions are causing authoritarian tendencies, with growing aggressiveness towards their neighbors,” Mr Mehrabyan said.
As regards the discontinuation of the South Stream project, he said:
“The problem is the lack of funds. The rest of Russia’s rhetoric is not worth a penny. Russia attempted a PR-step, which has failed. The West will not sustain any losses. Russia itself is the loser because it has spent US $5 billion, which has actually been wasted. The West can diversify its energy supply.”
Political scientist Levon Shirinyan is of the opposite opinion: Russian-Turkish relations pose no threat.
“If Turkish-Russian relations are balanced, we can expect a calmer situation in the South Caucasus, and Turkey will refrain from interfering in the South Caucasus processes. Russia’s economic influence on Turkey is much stronger and Turkey’s influence will be moderated as compared with earlier periods,” the expert said.
As regard Turkey’s expectations about gas price discounts, he said:
“It is Turkey’s nature to expect more. But I think they are satisfied. Both Turkey and Russia have benefited. The relations are progressing on the following basis: both the sides are in a favorable situation, and the Western pressure is lessening.”
Armenia could cooperate with Russia as its ally in the South Caucasus and benefit from Russia’s strained relations with the United States and Europe.
“It is an intellectual game,” Mr Shirinyan said. He warns of bewaring of President Vladimir Putin’s policy as, he is “a master of big programs and strategic games.”
He disagrees with Mr Mehrabyan over the South Stream project as well.
According to him, the West’s pressure on Russia has lessened, and Russia will start exporting to Turkey what it has to date exported to the West.
With respect to the USA’s statement that the end to the South Stream project is the result of sanctions against Russia, Mr Shirinyan said:
“Russia does not care about whether Bulgaria has sustained losses, and Europeans are facing a problem, while Russia is benefiting from the increase opportunities. Europe used this lever against Russia, but Russia has moved it to another place and is using it now.”
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