Expert forecasts AMD appreciation
In an interview with Tert.am, economist and founder of the Ajlentrank (Alternative) research center Tatul Manaseryan said that he was the only independent expert to forecast quick stabilization of the USD/AMD exchange rate.
According to him, economic risks remains, and recovery requires team work in terms of supervision and regulation.
Mr Manaseryan calls for civil activity and for holding Armenia’s authorities responsible and consider the economic entities that have taken advantage of the situation “at the expense of our pockets.”
Mr Manaseryan, this morning some RUB appreciation against the AMD could be seen in Armenia’s banks. The USD and Euro showed depreciation as well: the minimum selling price of the US dollar was AMD 550, whereas last morning exchange offices did not sell US dollars even at an exchange rate of $1/AMD 620. What can you say? Can we have optimistic expectations?
We can speak of it every day, and some people treated my forecasts with irony. As an independent think tank, we were the first to forecast quick stabilization. And, fortunately, our forecast is becoming a reality. We had grounds for the forecasts. Some apologies for economists tried to speak of others’ behalf yesterday and claim no one knew what was going on. We know well – and one does not have to be an economist to understand the situation. Abuse has taken place. Armenia’s economy does not have prerequisites for such deterioration. So we designated it USD appreciation rather than AMD depreciation, with ensuing consequences. Large-scale speculations have taken place, and, with Armenia being a small economy, even ordinary consumers could see was happened. Individual banks created deficit and stopped buying USD, which played into the hand of those taking advantage of the situation. Fortunately, supervision was exercised.
And what about the injections you speak of? Are they aimed at simply earning money or are there any political objectives?
It is, first of all, for earning money, and these are not only the foreign powers but those that have accumulated money. They needed to profit by the occasion to realize that at the expense of the Armenian market. But there is also a geopolitical factor. So we are in a vulnerable situation and are obliged to have countermeasures and counterbalancing steps to protect ourselves from different possible scenarios. And we do have an elaborated package.
Similar trends are also observed in Russia and Georgia where [the national currency] Lari began stabilizing much earlier. So was this a coordinated response, and were any solutions found in those countries?
“Yes, there are many differences between economies, and it is notable that while in the case of the military partnership with Armenia, it is expressed with the Rouble and the Russian market, the Georgian economy, which is more Dollar- and Euro-oriented, received the signals directly from there in both positive and negative terms. But Armenia will keep facing risks.
Do you point to any timeframes for stabilization or do you refrain from it?
It is very important for us to maintain the Armenian national currency and strengthen belief and trust in the Dram. Each of us has less in terms of both personal savings and the price surge, but there is one thing we must realize clearly: that all this has to do with our national values. So in case we decide to give preference to the Dollar, Euro and other currencies, we’ll doom ourselves [to failures].
So is it possible to say that you are making a call for a civic stand?
Yes, and I do it very clearly. Why don’t those who do not really need to transactions avoid buying Euros? If every country gives preference to their values, why don’t we try to protect our national value?
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