European Union to remain dependent on Russian gas for long – Armen Badalyan
It is natural that the European Union (EU) is seeking for greater energy independence of Russia, especially of gas supplies, in the context of Ukraine developments.
This is the reason why they EU is seeking new gas supply routes, such as gas agreements with Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, political scientist Armen Badalyan told Tert.am as he commented on the EU’s intention to develop relations with Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan.
“This is largely a PR step because the EU is greatly dependent on Russian gas, and however hard they seek alternative routes, the will remain dependent for a rather long period,” Mr Badalyan said.
In its turn, Russia is constructing gas pipelines as alternatives to Ukraine, which is the reason why the South Stream was replaced with Turkish Stream. That is, the EU will have to import gas from Turkey.
“As regards Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, the EU could sign relevant agreements with them, which, however, requires the necessary amount of gas in Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan to replace Russia. But they do not have this mount because Turkmenistan exports most of its gas to China. Moreover, under a new project, it is to supply gas to Pakistan and India,” Mr Badalyan said.
Azerbaijan’s gas reserves are not so huge as it claims them to be. Therefore, the EU cannot become less dependent on Russia’s gas for the next 30 years. Moreover, the EU intends to purchase even more gas from Russia.
Asked to comment on possible threats from the EU’s increasing interest in Azerbaijan on the one hand and the deepening Turkey-Russian relations on the other, the expert agreed that the developments are likely to have their negative impact on Armenia as well. “It will naturally have a negative impact as Azerbaijan uses any issue in search of positive solutions for [Nagorno-]Karabakh. That is why in case Azerbaijan manages to offer an alternative to the Russian gas, it will use that opportunity to extort the desired solutions on Karabakh from the European Union,” he added.
As for the EU’s energy union plan for 2030, the expert said he expects many political development and changes by that period.
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