Expert concerned over economic situation in Armenia
This January-March saw a 2.5% year-on-year rise in the index of business activity, according to Armenia’s Statistical Service.
In an interview with Tert.am, economist Vahagn Khachatryan said it does not reflect the reality. A rise in business activity should not be linked to economic growth.
Mr Khachatryan, according to the National Statistical Service, this January-March saw a 2% increase in industrial output, and a 4.5% increase in gross agricultural output, with an 0.8% increase recorded in the construction sector. What is your explanation?
I am worried about more figures. A rise in the index of economic activity should not be linked to economic growth. The system may have recorded some progress, but it does not mean it has ensured economic growth. If speak of statistical data, we can see a 30% decrease in foreign trade. We see decreased trade turnover, the most important index showing the economic situation. It means a decline in either Armenia’s population or the population’s purchasing power.
As regards business activity, reality and figures on the paper always arouse doubts. Even the agricultural growth included in the GDP always arouses doubts because the figures have nothing to do with real agriculture. The Statistical Service and other government bodies receive data from local communities. And if no incidents have been recorded during the year, the communities as a rule report higher figures. But in this season nothing is clear yet.
What about industrial output?
When industry records growth, with the energy sector not recording any growth, it is quite strange. But there is a factor showing that growth will be recorded. I mean high technologies, whose share in the industrial output is not so large. However, some doubts arise as well. How is not industrial growth accompanied by increased gas and energy consumption? We may get an explanation in a few days, after all the data are available. The general picture arouses concern. Money transfers are one of the main instruments of our economic progress, which has direct influence on commodity turnover and purchasing power.
Armenia’s Minister of Economy Karen Chshmarityan commented on the decline in the commodity turnover and exports. He said that Armenia’s trade with the other Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) member-states had not yet been calculated. And Armenia’s Statistical Service cannot compare data.
Without ruling out the fact that Armenia’s foreign trade is not 30% down, it should be noted that we have no progress either. Armenia’s foreign is obviously down. And other comments are, to put it mildly not serious. It is common knowledge that Armenia’s exports to the other states, especially to Russia are down, and imports from Russia are down as well. We must tell the truth and think of ways out of the situation.
Mr Khachatryan, are Armenia’s authorities taking steps to resolve the problems?
Regrettably, they are not. If they were, you can be sure that I would not voice my concern. Rather, I would speak of effectiveness of the steps.
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