Azerbaijan has no resources to wage war against Armenian states - analyst
Political scientist Hrant Melik Shahnazaryan believes that the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic is becoming gradually isolated.
“Against the background of possible resumption of an armed Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict this factor is a serious threat to Azerbaijan, the process being independent of Azerbaijani authorities,” he said in an interview with Tert.am.
“Of course, they are well aware of it, but the process is developing independently of Azerbaijani authorities. They cannot control nor can they influence the developments in the south-eastern regions of Turkey. Kurdish militants have actually changed the military and political situation in the region neighboring Nakhichevan and their new achievements are unknown yet. The Kurdish factor is even now causing communication problems there.”
Bilateral trade and passenger traffic is endangered because of an active Turkish-Kurdish conflict. It means that Nakhichevan’s future blockade largely depends on Kurds’ military and political success. Considering the present-day developments, such prospect can be deemed most likely, which arouses Azerbaijan’s concern. But Baku is reluctant to admit then threat - at least at the public level. This is the reason why the Aliyev administration goes on leaving the possibility of losing Nakhichevan out of account. They are only placing emphasis on possible military operations against Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) – this only being done by means of statements. “It is clear that Azerbaijan has no resources for hostilities against the Armenian states,” the expert said.
Asked about Turkey’s possible conduct in this context and Azerbaijan’s possible expectations of Turkey, Mr Melik-Shahnazaryan said: “Turkey cannot presently offer much support to Azerbaijan. Official Ankara’s major concern is now and for the near future preserving the state’s territorial integrity. I think the Kurdish factor is sure to gradually grow stronger in Turkey, especially in the territory of Western Armenia. This is the reason why Turkish authorities will have to curb its appetite for foreign political expansion and mobilize all resources to cope with the domestic problems. I have always been sure that Azerbaijan has always discussed the issue of whether or not to resume war against the Armenian states exclusively with Turkey. But Ankara was not ready for such a gamble, especially on the threshold of the 100th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide. So we can be sure that the Turkey-Azerbaijan alliance cannot carry out its threats now.”
Both Turkey and Azerbaijan are facing serious geopolitical problems the former may lose territories, while the latter is only ally in the region, the expert concluded.
Asked about regional stakeholders’ possible reaction to such a situation and the general expectations from the international community, the expert said he doesn’t think that the world powers’ attention is now focused on the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. “Any power having a little or more presence in the South Caucasus perceives the region in its integrity. Attention is paid only to the extent that they may influence the geopolitical developments.
“Hence the international community’s attention too, can be thought to be focused on the Turkish-Kurdish conflict rather than the Armenian-Azerbaijani one. So if the Kurds to attain remarkable achievements, we’ll need a new planning in the region. Azerbaijan will then face tough times. Losing Turkey’s protection, they may lose everything,” Melik-Shahnazaryan added.
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