Russian FM’s political agenda as seen by Armenian political scientists
A number of region-related issues have made Russian FM Sergey Lavrov decide to pay an urgent visit Armenia.
Among the issues are Russian military operations in Syria, a new Armenia-EU agreement, Armenia-Iran and Armenia-Georgia relations and, finally, the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process, with new elements in it due to the report entitled “Escalation of Violence in Nagorno-Karabakh and Other Occupied Territories of Azerbaijan” by Robert Walter (United Kingdom, EC), a rapporteur of the PACE Political Affairs Committee, political scientists Ruben Mehrabyan and Styopa Safaryan, as well as MP Tevan Pogosyan told Tert.am.
Russian FM Sergey Lavrov is to arrive in Armenia for a working visit on November 9, at the invitation of his Armenian counterpart Edward Nalbandian. Scanty information on the Russian FM’s forthcoming visit is available except for his planned meeting with Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan and talks with his Armenian counterpart, which will be followed by a joint press conference.
Elaborating on the subject, Mr Mehrabyan said that Mr Lavrov’s visit has to do with a number of urgent issues, given the fact that the visit has just been announced. Most significant previous events can be said to account for the visit as well.
“First of all, the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process may be on the meeting agenda while we know the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) approved an extremely biased and harmful document which escalates the political situation surrounding the negotiations. Moreover, we should remember that Armenian FM Edward Nalbandian elaborated on the issue at a meeting with the US Assistant Secretary of State, [Victoria Jane Nuland],” Mr Mehrabyan said.
He does not think any Syria-related issues could be discussed with Armenia now.
“I think it is the regional processes that account for that. We should not forget that Gazprom intends to increase gas supplies to Georgia, and the reason is increased supplies to Armenia. And we know they take some amount of gas for transit as payment. So very much has to be talked about, which makes Mr Lavrov arrive in Yerevan,” the expert said.
In his turn, Mr Poghosyan highlighted the Russian FM’s forthcoming visit to Armenia, a state Russia has declared is strategic partner. And a number of issues, first of all, economic ones, are on the agenda.
“We should not forget Russia is a Minsk Group member, and Armenia has taken over chairmanship of the collective security treaty organization (CSTO) this year and is going to chair the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). Nor should we forget the problems not s easily solved – the Valeri Permyakov case and Russian arms sales to Azerbaijan,” the MP said.
Speaking of the same subject, Mr Safaryan warned about the agenda.
“With respect to the agenda, it could be warned of what they are concerned over and what our agenda should be. First, the latest developments have shown that whatever Russia claims, it is not a staunch supporter of re-establishment of Armenia-EU relations. Hope-inspiring statements on the negotiations on an agreement have in recent months been made. However, given Russia’s policy to Armenia and to the South Caucasus, we can see Russia does not at all like Armenia’s desire to continue with the European Union,” he said.
On the other hand, Russia is satisfied with Azerbaijan’s statements on being uninterested in signing a document. Against this background, they view Armenia’s desire as disobedience reflected in its negotiations with Brussels.
Another problem of importance for Russia is developments related to Nagorno-Karabakh.
“Of course, Russia is concerned over the western co-chairs sparing no effort for the Minsk Group to resume its key role. In this context, Russia is well aware its underhand games stand low chances. Therefore, they can come to an end,” Mr Safaryan sad.
Another problem Russia is showing an unfavorable attitude to is Armenia breaking its blockade in the Iran-West communication, with Georgia-Armenia communication being the most promising. In this respect, although Russia has acquired all the energy-generating capacities it could, by means of which it can restrict Armenia-Iran relations, it is aware new opportunities are realistic. Besides, Russia’s operations in Syria should be considered.
“Russia has lately made frantic attempts to form its coalition in the war in Syria. And in this respect, what we hear from Russian Armenians - praises and so on - may be too little for Russia, and may want to see Armenia’s official involvement.”
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