Zhamanak: Russian expert warns of more escalation over Nagorno-Karabakh
In an interview with the paper, a deputy director of the Moscow Institute of Political and Military Analysis, Alexander Khramchikhin, commented upon the recent Azerbaijani offensives against an Armenian military object on the Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) Line of Contact.
Mr Khramchikhin, what do you think were the military problems Azerbaijan sought to resolve by striking the anti-air defense vehicle?
I cannot, of course, respond to that question instead of the Azerbaijani command to say what provocations they consider or what problems they are trying to resolve. But the idea to exert pressure upon the anti-air defense system is certainly a preparation for an air strike. That’s, in essence, an extreme step towards preparing for an attack, given especially that Karabakh does not have its own anti-air forces. That facilitates the things for Azerbaijan. So what we need to do is to destroy the anti-air defense.
And why have the anti-air defense units been deployed along the frontline? Is it aimed at averting the air forces’ strikes?
I have to mention again that I am not to supposed to respond to that instead of Karabakh’s command. I don’t think deploying surface-to-air missiles there on the frontline is the right thing to do, as those systems are very vulnerable to such attacks.
To what extent has hte likelihood of conflicts incrased after the incident?
I have repeatedly stated and written and will repeat again that Karabakh will inevitably face a new war. That may happen in five years or in two days.
What does that depend upon? Are there any political or other factors involved?
That depends upon a range of factors; that is why I am not prepared to make forecasts as to the [possible] timeframes.
Are the recent ceasefire violations likely to escalate the tension along the Line of Contact?
That depends on what I already said – whether it be a one-time action or preparation for war. It isn't possible to say anything for sure. Time will show.
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