ICG report on Karabakh war provocation – Armenian diplomat
The International Crisis Group’s (ICG) recent report highlighting high chances of a renewed war over Nagorno-Karabakh is provocation not giving ground to panic, according to Arman Navasardyan, a retired Armenian ambassador.
“An important moment to consider in situations as this is whom such a scenario would offer advantages tp. It's not definately Armenia - as opposed to the adversary, I think. The question is why that happened now. The thing is that Azerbaijan recently embarked on frontline operations, conducting active military, political, diplomatic and propagandistic work,” he said, attributing the forecasts to the recent policy shifts.
Te diplomat highlighted two factors behind Azerbaijan's hostile attitude. “First, it is for the domestic audience - given the political and economic tensions in Azerbaijan. Any statement on the highest level warning of the external enemy’s threat sounds encouraging on the one hand and keeps the society on high alert on the other, covering up the domestic and foreign policy failures,” he noted.
But Navasardyan ruled out the possibility of war. “The possible scenario is that of a military escalation, but I rule out the planned attack by Azerbaijan in the current circumstances,” he said.
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