Iran's assault on US bases in Iraq might satisfy both sides – The Guardian
By Michael Safi in Beirut
The “severe revenge” Iran promised for the death of Qassem Suleimani was heralded on Wednesday morning by at least two waves of short-range missile attacks on bases in Iraq hosting US and coalition personnel.
The attacks will provide an opportunity for hawks inside the Donald Trump administration to ratchet up the conflict with Iran – but also potentially a pathway out of the crisis.
The Iranian strikes were heavy on symbolism. The missiles were launched around 1.30am in Iraq, roughly the same time as the drone strike that killed Suleimani on Friday morning. Top Iranian advisers and semi-official media outlets tweeted pictures of the country’s flag during the attack, mirroring Donald Trump’s tweet as the first reports of Suleimani’s death were emerging. The Revolutionary Guards dubbed the operation “Martyr Suleimani”. Videos of the missiles being launched were released to Iranian media outlets.
But in their immediate aftermath, the attacks appear to have been carefully calibrated to avoid US casualties – fired at bases that were already on high alert.
Iran’s foreign minister has said the strikes have concluded and characterised them as self-defence within the boundaries of international law – not the first shots in a war.
Trump, in his first comments after the strikes, also sought to play them down.
If Trump’s assessment of the damage holds, Wednesday’s strikes might be an opportunity for both sides to de-escalate without losing face. Iran will be able to say it took violent revenge for Suleimani’s death and pivot to a campaign of proxy warfare – with which it feels more comfortable, against a vastly more powerful adversary – and diplomatic pressure to eject American forces from Iraq.
The US can also step back, shrugging off the retaliation as being of no significant consequence. That is the best-case scenario, but it rests on two risky premises: that more than a dozen missiles struck bases hosting US military personnel without substantial damage or casualties; and that the White House will resist any urge to respond.
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