Latest developments rule out war scenario – Armenian analyst
With respect to the reasons for Azerbaijan’s attempts to heighten border tensions, Director of the Caucasus Institute, political scientist Alexander Iskandaryan called them “reasonable necessity” on Azerbaijan’s part.
Mr Iskandaryan, the tension is rather high on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. Some do not even rule out resumed hostilities. What is your opinion of the situation?
The latest developments follow the logic of the general picture. That is, higher tension and Azerbaijan’s acts of sabotage not only against Nagorno-Karabakh, but also against Armenia. And an entirely new phenomenon, namely, aggression on Nakhijevan’s part. This has been an upward tendency for a few years.
The new thing is the following reality. First, Armenia’s harsh response and the heavy losses Azerbaijan is suffering. Of course, I do not fully trust the official reports, but they suggest how heavy losses are. I think at least dozens of Azerbaijani soldiers have been killed.
As to the resumption of hostilities, I should note that the developments during the recent few days show no war is going to unleashed. Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh on the one hand, and Azerbaijan on the other hand are showing their battle readiness and provision with military equipment. I think it is obvious for everyone. Experts knew it from the beginning, namely, that Azerbaijan’s army is, to put it mildly, not the best in the region. But it has now been shown to the public. And the fact that Azerbaijan had to admit the losses, which is not its usual behavior, proves that. I do not think Azerbaijan has admitted all the losses it has suffered.
What can you say of the Russian-Armenian-Azerbaijani presidential meeting to take place in Sochi?
If such a meeting takes place. I have some doubt. Of course, it has not officially been delayed. The point is that the meeting had been planned before the known events, with Russia’s serious participation. It is obvious for me that Russia is seeking to achieve a goal by means of this meeting. For example, a statement.
Russia is not in the best situation now. I mean its ratings in the context of the latest developments in southern Ukraine. Russia is pretending steps to settle the conflict. It is in Russia’s interests. If you remember, Russia was so active after the Russian-Georgian war as well. The Sochi meeting is viewed in the context of Russia’s potential for influencing Armenia and Azerbaijan. Even if such a meeting takes place and the sides do anything, I do not think any serious expectations should be held.
Why do you think they decided to conduct the meeting in Sochi, not in Paris?
First, there was no rejection of the French invitation. As for the cause, it is what I have already mentioned: that Russia demonstrates a kind of peacekeeping activity; also [French President Francois] Hollande was in the region quite recently. Besides, such activity has been usual for Russia since 2008. And this meeting does not rule out the possibility of another meeting in Paris. I don’t know if they will take place or no, but neither prevents the other.
Anyway, in what stage is the current negotiation round?
What all the co-chairs of the Minsk Group have to do today is not to ‘kill’ the negotiation process to make its resumption possible. So the mere fact of meeting – without any achievement – is actually progress in such a tense situation.
What we hear from the opinions voiced, Azerbaijan has nothing more to do than to release gunshots when it comes to Karabakh. Do you agree with that?
The Azerbaijanis, in general, have the sensible need of firing shooting. For us, the Armenians, it isn’t easy to picture to ourselves the situation that actually exists in Azerbaijan. Twenty years have passed since the war in which Azerbaijan suffered a defeat. And that defeat too, was quite crucial.
Azerbaijan has lost the lands which it considers its own. The negotiation process that has been continuing for 20 years has seen no progress apart from calls for friendship. So why does the process fail to promote a settlement on the one hand, preventing a counteraction on the other? People are just unaware of what is going on.
The logic is to inspire the international community [with the belief] that ‘the status quo is bad’. And because it isn’t easy to do that in words, they have to take other measures. And the blackmail tool at times becomes heated to such a degree that it couldn’t have been otherwise imagined. And it is necessary to demonstrate to the foreign players that a status quo is out of the question in light of the continuing shootings. So this is their reasonable necessity. This time, however, Azerbaijan met such a counteraction it had never met before. And it was the Armenian side’s attempt to put an end to all this, increasing the security schemes. So, it remains to be seen what the outcome will be.
And how do you evaluate the Armenian side’s activities on the border and in the negotiation process?
There are always individual problems, of course. And any problem can be given a better solution. I, personally, can talk for hours of the possible measure that could have been taken to lose less soldiers or to react more properly to a subversive act. But to say that it is possible to drastically change the situation is not something I can insist on. I don’t think, for example, that it is possible to have Azerbaijan recognize Karabakh. Likewise I don’t think that it is possible to make Karabakh a negotiating party. Practically, it isn’t possible to radically change the situation. Yerevan’s belief from here is that our conflict is exceptional, but that isn’t the case. [We know the examples of] Taiwan, Kashmir, Palestine, Western Sahara, Northern Cyprus etc. Conflicts of the kind are never easily and rapidly resolved anywhere. They are, as a matter of fact, conflicts of generations. They are complicated and multi-genre conflicts, containing lots of elements, so it is necessary to extract something from the knot, touching every single thread.
You may now ask, “would it have been possible to avoid the victims?” In theory, probably yes. More could have been done in case of having tens and billions of dollars. If you will tell me where to take the dollars from – whether from the pensions or ministries – I would be able to respond to you. Hence, shortcomings do exist in general, but I repeat that it isn’t possible to change anything drastically. Another observation which has come alight is that the [shoot-outs demonstrate] the essential difference between the two armies.
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