War may recur as causes not eliminated - Vladimir Yevseyev

14:05 • 14.07.16



It is wrong that Azerbaijan is rejecting a proposal for Nagorno-Karabakh’s involvement in the negotiations, Russian military expert Vladimir Yevseyev said in an interview with Tert.am.

Nagorno-Karabakh is a signatory to the ceasefire agreement of 1994-1995, he added.

The situation surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh suggests that events similar to the four-day war may recur because the causes remain, while the agreements have not been implemented.

Mr Yevseyev, the International Crisis Group released a report warning that events similar to the four-day war will cause ground-to-ground missile (GGM) to be used. What is the reason for this conclusion?

I think this concern is justified, but it is not the Armenian side that is the cause. There was a threat of Smerch missiles shelling Stepanakert during the four-day war. And it is Azerbaijan, not Armenia, that is issuing such threats.

The Armenian side has to retaliate against Azerbaijan’s aggression. This is the reason why missile launchers have been installed in Nagorno-Karabakh. The Armenian side has an advantage: it can shell any of Azerbaijan’s oil fields in retaliation for shelling of Stepanakert. Azerbaijan considered the fact and did not take such a step.

The cause of the threat is not Armenia issuing threats. Rather, it is Azerbaijan that is threatening Armenia. And the conflicting parties must realize the unacceptability of using heavy weapon in the conflict zone, ballistic missiles, which Azerbaijan tried to use. Their use can cause serious damage to civilians.

Are Armenian civilians alone going to face the aftermath or should global consequences be expected?

Consequences differ in scope. It may be loss of civilians residing on the Line of Contact. But should Stepanakert be attacked and Armenia retaliate, much graver consequences will be the result, with a conflict developing along the Russian and Turkish borders, that is between NATO and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).

The four-day war was followed by relative calm. In any case, no large-scale hostilities have taken place since. Azerbaijan is now carrying out training flights along the border. Do you think it is a ‘de-escalation-escalation’ policy?

I think the situation is going to be more calm than strained. No one should bear responsibility for Azerbaijan’s provocations. Azerbaijan is seeking negotiations, while rejecting proposals for Nagorno-Karabakh’s involvement in the negotiations. But it is grossly erroneous as Nagorno-Karabakh is a signatory to the ceasefire agreement of 1994-1995. So Azerbaijan must be openly told to invite Nagorno-Karabakh t the negotiating table if it wants to resume the negotiations.

On the other hand, a need for investigative mechanisms must be realized, which is of importance for Armenia. Long-lasting peace is difficult to establish without such mechanisms. We know which of the conflicting parties commits ceasefire violations, but we lack the evidence to “catch them red-handed.” Introduction of mechanisms requires technical equipment and supervision as no one believes anyone’s words. There is a need for intermediary supervision mechanisms, radar equipment.

Mr Yevseyev, an agreement on investigative mechanisms was reached at the Vienna meeting and upheld in Saint Petersburg. However, it has never been implemented. A meeting in France is expected to take place. Is there a need for another meeting while the previously reached agreements have not been implemented?

No doubt, there is a need for a meeting. Meeting is better that warring. But I do not like Azerbaijan opening fire along the Line of Contact prior to each meeting. It is a bad beginning.

This situation suggests that events similar to the four-day are likely to recur. Regrettably, the causes that led to the April strategy have not been eliminated. So I have serious doubts about a settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Russia keeps on thinking of making Armenia surrender five regions to Azerbaijan. But we cannot take such a step while the Nagorno-Karabakh population’s security has not been ensued. I d not know how I could be done with mutual understanding lacking.

Therefore, negotiations are necessary, with specific actions to follow them to reduce tension and prevent it escalating into a large-scale war, which may break out.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that the parties to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict are more than ever closer to success. What agreement do you think the sides have reached given that Russia, as you say, urges for the five regions’ return?

You know, probably, of the so-called Lavrov plan which is attributed to Lavorv and which does really imply the five regions’ return in exchange for security guarantees. But I don’t understand who that guarantor might be. Will the people in Nagorno-Karabakh be satisfied should [Azerbaijani President Ilham] Aliyev promise security guarantees to [Armenian President Serzh] Sargsyan. I am sure not.

To accept mutual concessions, you need to reduce the tension, strengthen the confidence-building measures and withdraw troops or at least the heavy equipment. But nothing is being done, practically. So I do not see any option for resolving the conflict. For me, a commonly agreed deal between the parties to avoid using dangerous armament and lethal weapons would be a step towards reaching an accord. I don’t see any reason or pretext ruling out the possibility of a war. This is the biggest issue. Agree with me that there are endless ways of approaching a success. It is necessary to undertake steps, which should be tangible and substantial.  

Tigranuhi Martirosyan





Загрузка...

LATEST NEWSAll Today news

18:13 • 19/09

Contract serviceman fatally wounded in Armenia’s north-east

17:50 • 19/09

Dunja Mijatović: Legal incapacity of individuals with disabilities 'challenge to their rights' in Armenia

16:18 • 19/09

IBM launches AI bias detector

15:52 • 19/09

Kocharyan explains reasons behind ‘political comeback’

15:08 • 19/09

Azerbaijan, Russia conduct joint drills in Caspian Sea

13:07 • 19/09

The Weeknd sued 'for at least $5m' for 'stealing' his hit song Starboy from another artist

12:36 • 19/09

EU 'ready to improve' Irish border deal

12:09 • 19/09

Trump hails 'exciting' agreements by North Korean leader

12:05 • 19/09

Turkish workers arrested after Istanbul airport protests  

11:30 • 19/09

Trump considers request for US military base in Poland

11:18 • 19/09

Jessica Simpson expecting third baby

11:06 • 19/09

Facebook accused of gender discrimination in job adss

10:34 • 19/09

We are ready for negotiations but must be prepared for war, prime minister says in Artsakh

09:24 • 19/09

Pentagon lists Russia, China as biggest threats to US

09:13 • 19/09

North and South Koreas ‘commit to era of no wars’

17:56 • 18/09

Armenian khachkar unveiled in Polish city

17:05 • 18/09

Armenian parliament official briefs PACE committee on Azerbaijani aggression against Armenian civilian settlements

16:55 • 18/09

Ucom doubles inclusions of uDaily prepay mobile internet service

16:35 • 18/09

Former Liverpool defender forced to retire with motor neurone disease just months after marrying England women's captain 

16:22 • 18/09

Armenia, China sign deal to facilitate air communication

15:40 • 18/09

Trump orders release of classified documents in Russia probe

15:24 • 18/09

Armenian government delegation conducts visit to Nagorno-Karabakh

14:51 • 18/09

Central Bank chief re-elected president of interstate bank council

14:40 • 18/09

Armenian defense minister meets with FAST foundation president

14:08 • 18/09

NASA's new spacecraft captures photo of more than a dozen celestial objects known to host exoplanets in stunning 'first light' image

13:45 • 18/09

Pakistan's austerity car auction falls short, new PM commutes by helicopter

13:25 • 18/09

Armenian family’s 400-year-old musical secret still rings true

13:17 • 18/09

Russia blames Israel for downing of plane, vows retaliation

12:45 • 18/09

Chief architect of Yerevan sacked

12:25 • 18/09

Republic Square selected as 'hot spot' of independence day events to symbolize success in ‘Velvet Revolution’

11:26 • 18/09

Libarman’s visit to Baku signals strengthening Azerbaijani-Israeli relations

11:09 • 18/09

Zhoghovurd: OSCE to turn closer spotlight on situation along Karabakh frontline

10:35 • 18/09

Russian military plane disappears during Israeli strikes on Latakia with 14 people on board

10:13 • 18/09

Zhamanak: Putin planning meeting with former presidents in Yerevan

09:56 • 18/09

SpaceX unveils first Moon Loop tourist

09:51 • 18/09

Sean Penn Calls #MeToo Movement ‘Receptacle of the Salacious’

09:44 • 18/09

Florence leaves 'monumental disaster' for North Carolina

09:31 • 18/09

Magnitude 1.9 earthquake hits Armenia’s south

09:13 • 18/09

SpaceX signs first private moon customer

09:12 • 18/09

Russia and Turkey agree to create buffer zone in Syria's Idlib

19:40 • 17/09

Facts, figures, and Results: Zvartnots International Airport reports details on its activity and not օnly

17:53 • 17/09

French actor Gerard Depardieu 'wants' to acquire Turkish citizenship

17:35 • 17/09

New head of OSCE Mission to Skopje takes office

17:23 • 17/09

Ukraine's Poroshenko terminates Treaty of Friendship with Russia

16:38 • 17/09

Samsung’s Galaxy Note 9 reportedly catches fire in user’s purse  

16:05 • 17/09

Zohrab Mnatsakanyan: Nagorno-Karabakh is not just conflict for Armenia

15:17 • 17/09

Turkish Coast Guard rescues 16 migrants as boat capsizes

14:46 • 17/09

Yerevan hosts 11th Armrobotics Championship

12:46 • 17/09

Britain’s oldest person reveals secret of longevity  

12:33 • 17/09

Arthur Abraham takes part in 45th BMW Berlin Marathon

12:02 • 17/09

Penelope Cruz dazzles in elegant one-shoulder gown as she joins husband Javier Bardem for LA screening of Loving Pablo

11:34 • 17/09

Armenian, Artsakh foreign ministers meet in Stepanakert

11:10 • 17/09

Turkey to increase troops in Turkish Cyprus

10:43 • 17/09

Elon Musk says Tesla now in 'delivery logistics hell'

10:14 • 17/09

Azerbaijan's armed forces open fire on Armenia’s south from Nakhicehvan

09:51 • 17/09

As Trump and Mattis clash in public, officials question how long he'll last at the Pentagon

09:37 • 17/09

It's not novichok, say police: 'Russian' couple fall ill at Salisbury restaurant with nerve-agent symptoms

09:15 • 17/09

New doubts emerge about US-led sanctions on North Korea

14:49 • 15/09

No more favoritism or privileged classes in Armenia - Pashinyan's interview with Le Monde

14:02 • 15/09

Kocharyan’s statements reflect level of his political understanding – Nikol Pashinyan

13:12 • 15/09

International Figure Skating Classic 2018: Armenia’s Slavik Hayrapetyan ranks fifth (video)

12:48 • 15/09

Erdogan travels to Baku  

12:07 • 15/09

Russian Orthodox church cuts ties with Constantinople over Ukraine

11:23 • 15/09

Zhamanak: Gyumri mayor 'to quit' over 'failure to work effectively' with Pashinyan's cabinet

10:49 • 15/09

Turkey demands release of 16-year-old boy held in Armenia

09:50 • 15/09

Jean-Claude Van Damme arrives in Armenia  

09:42 • 15/09

Nebraska doctor to face execution for killing four people

09:32 • 15/09

Azerbaijan shells border village in Armenia’s Tavush region

17:43 • 14/09

Jean-Claude Van Damme to visit Armenia

17:37 • 14/09

Apple criticized for new iPhones 'too big for women to hold'

16:27 • 14/09

French, Armenian leaders start working meeting in Paris

16:10 • 14/09

Armenian Genocide museum elects new director

15:26 • 14/09

Animals snapped enjoying surprise snowfall in South Africa

15:00 • 14/09

Armenian biker named double winner in Astana championship  

14:21 • 14/09

‘Velvet Revolution’ marked also revolution of values in Armenia – Nikol Pashinyan

12:49 • 14/09

Azerbaijan braces for military drills 'in response' to Armenia

12:05 • 14/09

Ucom to start pre-registration of iPhone XS and XS Max purchase

12:03 • 14/09

Amazon's Jeff Bezos commits $2 billion to help homeless, pre-schools

11:54 • 14/09

Hurricane Florence: Life threatening storm lashes US

11:09 • 14/09

Armenia 'important role-player' in global politics, prime minister says in France

10:01 • 14/09

US congressman raises call for Armenian Genocide recognition

09:31 • 14/09

Saroyan world premiere adds dates in Fresno and OC, announces encore L A performance

09:19 • 14/09

Gas explosions hit homes in Massachusetts

18:08 • 13/09

Mbappe better than Ronaldo, says De Vrij

17:42 • 13/09

We understand Armenian government’s desire to help compatriots in Syria - US Embassy

17:23 • 13/09

Meghan Markle pregnant? Bookies expecting baby announcement soon

17:06 • 13/09

US government encourages open labs in Armenia – embassy statement

16:36 • 13/09

Edward Nalbandian: Prime minister misleadingly accused former government of failure over Karabakh

15:01 • 13/09

Pashinyan vows to 'lock up' masterminds behind March 1 events  

14:09 • 13/09

Six killed in California shooting

13:55 • 13/09

Apple ends iPhone X and iPhoe SE sale

13:09 • 13/09

Trump signs order to punish US meddlers

12:55 • 13/09

Turkey to use national currency in property transactions

12:37 • 13/09

Pashinyan will regret messing with me – Robert Kocharyan

12:13 • 13/09

Pashinyan holds phone conversation with Kyrgyzstan's leader

11:11 • 13/09

Drake, Cardi B lead American Music Awards

10:52 • 13/09

Zhamanak: CSTO secretary general to step down over March 2008 coup charges

09:58 • 13/09

Putin to conduct official visit to Armenia - Russian paper

09:30 • 13/09

Turkey 'boosts arms to Syrian rebels' as Idlib attack looms

09:13 • 13/09

Apple unveils iPhone XS and fall-detecting watch