From demonstration to rebellion – opinions on pension reform protest
The upcoming public protest against the compulsory pension funds is believed to be either a good start of a social rebellion or at least a big challenge to the ruling authorities.
The political engineer Karen Kocharyan says the effectiveness of the event greatly depends on the number of people who will join it, while Vardan Hakobyan, a conductor affiliated with the Pre-Parliament group, does not rule out the possibility of a rebellion. The political analyst Hmayak Hovhannisyan says he considers the plan “a serious challenge to the authorities”.
Speaking to Tert.am, Kocharyan said he doesn’t think the nature of a rebellion has to do with its effectiveness. “It doesn’t matter whether it is a social, political or civil rebellion. Its effectiveness depends on the number of those gathered in the square,” he said, adding that it is very important for more people genuinely interested in the campaign to be in the square (instead of those taking a bribe to attend a public event).
The expert said he isn’t sure yet whether the non-coalition parliamentary factions (the Armenian Revolutionary Federation-Dashnaksutyun, Prosperous Armenia, Heritage, Armenian National Congress), which proposed the idea of the protest, will be really consolidated.
The non-ruling forces and the civic group “I am Against” are rallying in Yerevan’s Liberty Square on Saturday to protest against the controversial reforms which make 5% salary deductions for pension funds compulsory for all Armenian citizens born after 1974. The reforms went into effect on January 1.
The Pre-Parliament activist said their group is also joining the rally which he expects to see a consolidated campaign among the organizers.
“I wouldn’t rule out a social rebellion, but I don’t think a social rebellion is the right solution. I don’t think it will help our country out without any shocks. Perhaps a few people will be punished or sacked from office as a result, but I don't expect it either. As our authorities have proven, they are not ready for any mutual concession,” Hakobyan said.
The activist added that the civilian rebellion may to turn into a political campaign in case of a consolidation offering a serious plan of actions.
“I think we will achieve a result in a campaign that will see everybody arrive at the conclusion that the problem is systemic. Once everybody reaches that conclusion, we will really have serious results.”
Hakobyan said he regrets that the parliamentary forces seek a solution within the system (in the parliament and courts) which he considered fledged.
“I am arriving at the conclusion that by remaining within the system, they are feeding it, contributing to the ratification of all those anti-constitutional and anti-human laws. They have to assist in the movement in a global sense. But if they remain players in these games, these processes will continue,” he added.
Commenting on his expectations, Hmayak Hovhannisyan said he finds a social protest very likely in the light of the increasing natural gas prices and inflation rate.
“The social background is very ponderous in such circumstances, with the discontent being very big. And the [proposal of the] parliament’s non-ruling forces adds to all this. This is a serious challenge to the authorities, so if those forces take necessary steps, trying to make a maximum use of the existing potentials, that will pose a bigger threat to the authorities,” he explained.
The expert said at the end that he is doubtful if the four parliamentary forces will choose that option or restrict themselves to what he called a single demonstrative protest.
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