Azerbaijan has no military potential to launch large-scale hostilities - Thomas de Waal
Thomas de Waal, a non-resident senior associate with Carnegie Europe, specializing in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus region, does not see any interest in resumption of large-scale hostilities by Armenia or Azerbaijan.
Speaking at a Friday discussion on the escalation of tension in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone, Mr Thomas de Waal, who took part by means of a space bridge, stressed that war would not play into the Armenian side’s hands, as it is in a favorable situation, while it poses a great risk to Azerbaijan.
The outcome of war for Azerbaijan is unclear. First of all, it is a great risk to Azerbaijan’s ruling regime.
Azerbaijan has not the sufficient military potential to launch large-scale hostilities. Russia’s possible reaction to Azerbaijan’s launching hostilities is unknown either, Armenpress reports, quoting Mr Thomas de Waal as saying.
However, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has been escalated because Azerbaijan is now using arms of larger calibers on the Line of Contact.
This is evidence that tension may continue growing on the Line of Contact, which will cause human losses. It could be a serious blow on the peace process.
The expert said he knows that the Minsk Group is working actively to promote a peaceful solution, adding that its key task now deals with status quo maintenance and the arrangement of talks between the negotiating sides’ presidents at least once per year to keep the situation under control.
“That’s the Minsk Group’s minimal task; the maximum task, of course, is to reach a peaceful settlement. It isn’t clear though how a peaceful solution can be achieved,” he said, the citing Ukraine’s example and noting that people both there and in Nagorno-Karabakh want peace in spite of the existing distrust and controversies.
Describing the current situation as very risky, Mr Waal said he is afraid that an unprecedented growth of tension caused by a slight error along the Line of Contact could be the greatest threat.
It comes after Azerbaijan escalated tension along the Line of Contact in September, targeting also border villages in Armenia’s Tavush region. The communities suffered serious property damage, with the schools having to suspend lessons and villagers stopping the harvest gathering to avoid human losses. Both servicemen and civilians were wounded in the gun attacks; three civilians were killed in the villages Berdavan and Paravakar.
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